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Zach Wilson headshot

Zach Wilson

QB · #68

NO · QB · Age 26

Redraft rank
QB72
◆QB72 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#491
ADP
QB48
Consensus
Some split

(insufficient first-party data)

Value vs ADP-24 slots (reach)
Our rank
QB72
vs
Market ADP
QB48
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
QB72 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
QB48 ADP · -24 slots
Major
Neutral: Source agreement, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-24 quarterbacks most similar to Zach Wilson's 2023 season, 3 finished QB1, 2 finished QB2, 4 finished QB3, 1 finished QB4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

30%21%40%
  • QB130%(3)
  • QB221%(2)
  • QB340%(4)
  • QB4+10%(1)
Next-season PPG range15.4 median
6.1p25–p75 13.2–18.122.4
10 most similar players
Patrick Mahomes96%
2020·QB3 · 24.0 PPG
Jameis Winston95%
2018·QB21 · 17.8 PPG
Jared Goff95%
2019·QB16 · 15.5 PPG
Kenny Pickett94%
2023·QB32 · 9.2 PPG
Sam Darnold93%
2022·QB35 · 14.4 PPG
Mitchell Trubisky90%
2019·QB25 · 13.5 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Depth Chart2

    Wilson dropped from QB2 to QB3 on the depth chart after being leap-frogged by seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers mid-season. McDaniel's benching decision signals he's not the preferred backup despite more experience.

  • Free Agency Uncertainty

    Wilson becomes an unrestricted free agent in March 2026 with no clear landing spot after failing to secure playing time in Miami. His minimal 2025 tape (6-of-11, 32 yards, 0 TDs) makes him unattractive to potential suitors.

  • Career Trajectory Decline

    Wilson has failed to win a QB competition at three consecutive stops (Jets, Broncos, Dolphins) since being drafted 2nd overall. At 26.5 years old with minimal positive NFL tape since 2023, his window to prove NFL viability is closing rapidly.

  • Career Trajectory

    Wilson has now lost consecutive QB competitions — he was supplanted by 7th-round rookie Quinn Ewers in Miami (2025), then signed a league-minimum deal ($1.4M, ~$599k guaranteed) with New Orleans in March 2026. His market price is that of a camp arm, not a legitimate NFL starter or developmental asset.

  • Depth Chart Position

    Tyler Shough is the Saints' committed QB1 after a solid 2025 finish (67.6% completion, 10 TDs, 9 starts), and New Orleans spent the 8th overall pick in 2026 on WR Jordyn Tyson to build around him long-term. Wilson's path to meaningful snaps requires a significant Shough injury.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Scheme Fit

    Miami's offensive infrastructure with established WRs (Hill, Waddle) and run game could help Wilson if he wins the job outright, though this scenario remains unlikely.

  • Garbage Time Potential 2sf

    In superflex or 2-QB leagues, Wilson remains a minimal-cost grab for bye-week coverage or injury fill-in. His $6M contract history proves some GMs believe in low-cost reclamation upside.

  • Superflex Depth Lottery

    In deep superflex/2-QB leagues, Wilson remains a minimum-cost QB3/QB4 roster stash with theoretical injury replacement upside if he lands in a favorable backup situation. His dynasty value floor is essentially zero.

  • Camp Battle Wildcard

    Wilson could compete for a veteran backup job with a QB-needy team seeking low-cost depth. However, with better backup options available in free agency, this path requires significant competition attrition.

  • Injury Upside

    In 2SF or Superflex leagues with thin QB rosters, Wilson is a free-agent stash on the chance the Saints' starter misses time. New Orleans has had chronic QB instability and a depleted offense — any multi-week vacancy creates at least a streaming role.

  • Format Value

    At effectively $0 dynasty cost, Wilson holds non-zero roster value strictly in 14-team+ Superflex or 2QB formats where the QB pool is exhausted. His ceiling is streaming fill-in; his floor is free.

Format Comparison

Zach Wilson — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest481—
PPR 1QB306-175