Risk Flags
6- Starter Uncertainty
Wilson is competing with Tua Tagovailoa for Miami's starting job with no clear path to consistent QB1 production. Tua's injury history creates volatility, but Wilson hasn't demonstrated he's the long-term answer.
- Career Trajectory
Wilson has now lost consecutive QB competitions — he was supplanted by 7th-round rookie Quinn Ewers in Miami (2025), then signed a league-minimum deal ($1.4M, ~$599k guaranteed) with New Orleans in March 2026. His market price is that of a camp arm, not a legitimate NFL starter or developmental asset.
- Depth Chart
Wilson enters a Saints QB room as a backup or QB3 candidate. Dynasty Nerds ranks him QB89 / 618th overall with an assigned value of 0, reflecting the industry consensus that he has no viable path to a starting role on his new team.
- Free Agency Uncertainty
Wilson becomes an unrestricted free agent in March 2026 with no clear landing spot after failing to secure playing time in Miami. His minimal 2025 tape (6-of-11, 32 yards, 0 TDs) makes him unattractive to potential suitors.
- Career Trajectory Decline
Wilson has failed to win a QB competition at three consecutive stops (Jets, Broncos, Dolphins) since being drafted 2nd overall. At 26.5 years old with minimal positive NFL tape since 2023, his window to prove NFL viability is closing rapidly.
- Depth Chart Position
Tyler Shough is the Saints' committed QB1 after a solid 2025 finish (67.6% completion, 10 TDs, 9 starts), and New Orleans spent the 8th overall pick in 2026 on WR Jordyn Tyson to build around him long-term. Wilson's path to meaningful snaps requires a significant Shough injury.