Risk Flags
6- Age Concerns
At 35 with a second ACL tear, Ertz is operating well past the typical TE aging curve. His target share was already trending down (10% in his final W14 game before injury) and his snap share was declining — volume erosion was underway before the injury, and now he returns to a more competitive room.
- Injury Concerns
Ertz tore his ACL in Week 14 of the 2025 season at age 35, with standard recovery timelines of 9+ months making 2026 availability highly uncertain. At this age, ACL recovery is extremely difficult and this injury may end his career.
- Free Agency Departure
Ertz becomes an unrestricted free agent in March 2026, and GM Adam Peters stated the Commanders need to get 'younger and faster.' With OC Kliff Kingsbury (his biggest advocate) fired in January, a Washington return is unlikely.
- Contract Situation
Washington did not re-sign Ertz, instead signing Chig Okonkwo to a 3-year, $27M deal in April 2026. Ertz is an unrestricted free agent with no current team, and the combination of age and post-ACL status makes securing a meaningful contract extremely difficult.
- Injury Recovery
Ertz tore his ACL in W14 of the 2025 season at age 35 — his second such injury in three years. While recovery is reportedly ahead of his first ACL rehab pace and clearance is targeted around Week 1 2026, a PUP list start (4-game minimum absence) remains possible, allowing younger TEs to seize targets and snaps before he returns.
- Target Competition
WAS added Chig Okonkwo (value: 2165) as their primary TE going forward; depth charts list Okonkwo ahead of Ertz even after the re-signing. Ben Sinnott (1657) is also developing, leaving Ertz as a secondary option in a crowded room rather than the featured target he was in the first half of 2025.