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Zach Charbonnet headshot

Zach Charbonnet

RB · #31

SEA · RB · Age 25

Redraft rank
RB41
▲RB41 · Depth+7 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T3
Overall
#196
ADP
RB48
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP+7 slots of value
Our rank
RB41
vs
Market ADP
RB48
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
RB48 ADP · +7 slots
Notable
Case against
−
Projection rank
RB41 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
Source agreement
±51 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-25 backs most similar to Zach Charbonnet's 2025 season, 2 finished RB2, 5 finished RB4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → RB2 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

22%49%29%
  • RB222%(2)
  • RB4+49%(5)
  • Missed season29%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
71%hang on~3.4 PPG·29%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.2–8.714.3
10 most similar players
Nick Chubb92%
2021·RB14 · 15.4 PPG
Derrick Henry91%
2018·RB18 · 12.6 PPG
Darrell Henderson87%
2022·RB60 · 7.3 PPG
J.K. Dobbins84%
2023·Missed the season
Salvon Ahmed82%
2022·RB98 · 3.1 PPG
Chase Edmonds79%
2023·RB66 · 3.2 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Charbonnet's dynasty value is structurally impaired by the convergence of a torn ACL (Feb 20, 2026 surgery, hopeful December return) and Seattle's decision to draft Jadarian Price in the first round to be the lead back. The lone bright spot is that Kenneth Walker III departed for Kansas City, leaving a genuinely open backfield — but Price's draft capital, not Walker, is now the wall in front of Charbonnet, and he's a free agent after 2026 with little runway to re-establish himself in Seattle. His 2025 tape (RB25 PPR, multiple 17+ point games when given volume) confirms the talent is real, so the bull case lives entirely in a 2027 free-agency landing spot or a Price injury/bust. For now this is a depleted-value handcuff with speculative standalone upside. Recommendation: HOLD if rostered (don't sell at a trough), or modest BUY-LOW for contenders willing to bet on a 2027 free-agency relocation — but expect 2026 to be a dead year, so this is a 1-2 year play, not a win-now asset.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Solid usage productionAverage carry shareAge 25 · ascending
Our view vs Market↑ 11 pts above market
Our view
73
Market
62
Long career runway

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Draft Capital3

    Seattle is strongly expected to draft a RB in the 2026 NFL Draft (April 24-26), possibly as early as Round 1, with Emmett Johnson (Nebraska) and Jonah Coleman (Washington) linked to the team. A high-pedigree pick could assume starter duties while Charbonnet recovers and permanently challenge his path back.

  • Starter Entrenched

    The Seahawks planned to move on from Kenneth Walker III this offseason, but Walker is now the reigning Super Bowl MVP while Charbonnet is sidelined with a torn ACL. Walker must be retained with Charbonnet likely to miss much of the 2026 season.

  • Walker Established Dominance

    Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl LX MVP with 161 scrimmage yards and is the first running back to win Super Bowl MVP since 1998, with 135 rushing yards marking the most in a Super Bowl since Davis' 157. Walker's elevated profile makes reclaiming the primary role extremely difficult.

  • Backfield Hierarchy

    Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl LX MVP with 135 rushing yards and is the first RB to win the award since 1998. Walker is now a free agent commanding $13.5M+ annually, and Seattle is heavily motivated to re-sign him given Charbonnet's injury.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Backfield Vacancy

    Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl LX MVP then departed as a UFA, signing a 3-year/$43M deal with Kansas City. The backfield is now genuinely open — no proven incumbent stands between Charbonnet and the lead role when healthy.

  • Scheme Fit

    New OC Brian Fleury brings the Kyle Shanahan outside-zone system from San Francisco's run-heavy offense. This scheme historically produces elite RB fantasy and real-world value and is well-suited to Charbonnet's skill set as a between-the-tackles and receiving back.

  • Contract Situation2

    With Walker gone and the backfield thin, a healthy Charbonnet who performs in the second half of 2026 holds real leverage for a lucrative new deal. A strong showing in a Shanahan-tree run-heavy offense could reset his market value significantly above his current rookie contract.

  • Backup RB Role If Healthy

    Current depth chart shows Charbonnet on IR with George Holani, Velus Jones, and Cam Akers ahead. If healthy and able to return mid-to-late season, he could carve out value as an elite emergency option, though establishing consistent role would be difficult.

  • Elite Handcuff Value

    In the six games Walker missed last season, Charbonnet averaged 18.3 touches and 19.2 fantasy points per game. If healthy by late 2026, he retains significant emergency appeal as proven RB1 insurance in a quality offense.

Format Comparison

Zach Charbonnet — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,188—
PPR SF1,821-367