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Tyson Bagent headshot

Tyson Bagent

QB · #50

CHI · QB · Age 26

Redraft rank
QB48
◆QB48 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#436
ADP
QB33
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP-15 slots (reach)
Our rank
QB48
vs
Market ADP
QB33
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
QB48 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
QB33 ADP · -15 slots
Major
−
Source agreement
±65 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 quarterbacks most similar to Tyson Bagent, 2 finished QB1, 2 finished QB2, 3 finished QB3, 3 were off fantasy rosters.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Off rosters → QB1 — directional, not a forecast.

24%16%31%29%
  • QB124%(2)
  • QB216%(2)
  • QB331%(3)
  • Off rosters29%(3)
Year-two outlookcoin-flip
71%hang on~17.1 PPG·29%fall offoff rosters

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full year-two range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–17.118.6
10 most similar players
Tyler Huntley96%
2023·QB35 · 5.1 PPG
Matthew Stafford95%
2023·QB12 · 16.6 PPG
Baker Mayfield86%
2023·QB9 · 17.1 PPG
Jacoby Brissett86%
2023·Off fantasy rosters
Aaron Rodgers81%
2023·Off fantasy rosters
Joe Flacco78%
2023·QB25 · 19.1 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Tyson Bagent is a confirmed, well-regarded QB2 in Chicago behind franchise starter Caleb Williams, with Case Keenum as QB3 — an unchanged room from 2025 — and is locked in via a two-year extension (signed August, $10M up to $16M) through 2027. Game logs confirm a pure clipboard role: 2 games, 1.3 PPG, snap share down to ~1%, so he has no standalone fantasy value in the current setup, and the Bears used no 2026 draft capital on the position (R3 picks were a TE and WR), leaving the room static. The only paths to a value spike are external: GM Ryan Poles has publicly confirmed trade interest, and HC Ben Johnson considers Bagent a top-32 NFL QB who deserves an eventual shot to start — making a trade to a depth-needy team the most plausible catalyst, with a Williams injury as the secondary lottery ticket. Against that, he's 25 with no established starter résumé, and his contract security cuts both ways (stable job, but it keeps him buried). For dynasty, this is a HOLD-to-SELL: in superflex he's a worthwhile bench stash on contract/trade optionality, but if a contending manager will pay a premium on the 'inevitable starter' narrative, sell now — his realistic standalone ceiling in Chicago is near-zero over the next 1-2 years.

Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Usage & Volume2

    Structured game log data shows near-zero production: snap shares of 1%, 16%, 4%, and 8% in his last four appearances, with 2.6 total points across two games in 2025. He is purely mop-up; Williams' durability makes even those snaps rare.

  • Depth Chart

    Bagent remains a backup QB in Chicago with no clear path to consistent starting opportunity. The Bears' QB situation remains unsettled heading into 2025, but Bagent is not the presumed solution.

  • No Starter Path

    Caleb Williams is entrenched as the Bears' franchise QB after a breakout 2025 season (3,942 passing yards, 27 TDs). Bagent is locked in as the backup with zero path to meaningful playing time under normal circumstances.

  • Zero Path To Starts

    Caleb Williams threw for 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2025, cementing his status as Chicago's franchise QB. The Bears have their guy at quarterback and a QB2 they are very comfortable with, meaning Bagent has zero path to meaningful snaps barring injury.

  • Trade Leverage

    The Bears actively shopped Bagent this offseason and drew interest from Arizona, the Jets, and Miami — all went other directions. The market dried up before the draft, and the asking price (2nd, would take a 3rd) found no takers, leaving him in Chicago by default.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns3

    If Chicago's starter suffers injury, Bagent could receive starting snaps and demonstrate NFL capability, though this represents speculative short-term value only.

  • Trade Potential

    The Bears are still 'weighing options' as of April 12, 2026, and a QB-needy team suffering a camp injury could revive the market. GM Poles has shown willingness to deal; a landing on a rebuilding team would immediately elevate Bagent's dynasty ceiling.

  • Rebuild Depth

    For dynasty rebuilders, Bagent at tier 11 value represents virtually free QB depth with minimal capital outlay and speculative Williams-injury upside.

  • Coaching Fit

    Ben Johnson publicly called Bagent 'probably one of the best 32 in the NFL,' signaling real organizational buy-in. That endorsement backstops his roster spot and could support a trade to a starter-needy team mid-season if one gets desperate.

Format Comparison

Tyson Bagent — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest505—
PPR 1QB113-392