IND · TE · Age 24
Of the 10 age-23 tight ends most similar to Tyler Warren's 2025 season, 6 finished TE1, 4 finished TE2.
Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
+4 more analogs
Warren enters Year 2 as the engine of the Colts' passing game after a Pro Bowl rookie season in which he led the team with 112 targets and set a franchise rookie record with 76 receptions for 817 yards, finishing top-8 at the position in PPR on a rock-stable 24% target share and 82-84% snap rate. The offseason broke decisively his way: Michael Pittman was traded to Pittsburgh, vacating 111 targets, and Indianapolis added essentially nothing behind him — the draft brought only a seventh-round RB and WR, and his TE room (Alie-Cox, Mallory, Ogletree) offers no target competition. He is also a strong positive TD-regression candidate after scoring just 5 times against roughly 9 expected touchdowns. The one real concern is quarterback stability: Daniel Jones is coming off a Week 14 Achilles tear — rehab reportedly on schedule with 7-on-7 work by the end of OTAs — and any early-season Anthony Richardson snaps would pressure the efficiency around Warren's volume. At age 24 at a late-peaking position with a decade of runway, he is a clear BUY now: pay the current price this summer before a Year 2 target spike and normalized scoring push him into the Bowers/McBride tier by midseason.
Not enough recent NFL production to trust the fundamentals rank yet — no call.
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
Daniel Jones is now the entrenched starter over Anthony Richardson, and Warren's per-target efficiency is tied to Jones sustaining the passing volume the Colts have funneled his way — a QB downgrade is the clearest path to a value dip.
The offseason trade of Michael Pittman Jr. vacated over 100 targets, and reports have Warren stepping into a true No. 1 receiver-equivalent role with a path to a 1,000-yard season.
Warren scored only 5 TDs against 9.0 expected in his rookie year, a finishing shortfall that projects to positively regress and lift scoring output even at flat volume.
A Pro Bowl nod, a franchise rookie-TE reception record, and a stable 24% target share / 84% snap share with no meaningful depth-chart or draft-capital competition (Alie-Cox, Mallory, Ogletree) give Warren one of the safest volume bases at the position.
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 4,726 | — |
| PPR SF | 4,363 | -363 |