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Tyler Warren headshot

Tyler Warren

TE · #4

IND · TE · Age 24

Redraft rank
TE4
▲TE4 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#84
ADP
TE4
Consensus
Tight

Tyler Warren enters Year 2 as the clear beneficiary of a massive vacated-target pool after Michael Pittman's trade, with a franchise rookie-record 76 receptions and 817 yards in his first season.

Role & trajectory
Warren led the Colts with 112 targets last year on an 83.8% snap share, setting up for a significant target spike in Year 2 as he faces minimal competition from his TE room.
Projected outlook
With a stable 82-84% snap rate and a real red-zone role worth roughly 9 expected touchdowns but scoring only 5, neutral scoring luck alone raises his PPG on identical usage.
Risk & schedule
Daniel Jones is rehabbing from an Achilles tear; any setback puts Anthony Richardson under center and drags the passing efficiency around Warren's volume.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
TE4
vs
Market ADP
TE4
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
TE4 · proj. consensus
Major
+
Source agreement
±0 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
+
Age / role
age 24 TE
Minor
Neutral: ADP value
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-23 tight ends most similar to Tyler Warren's 2025 season, 6 finished TE1, 4 finished TE2.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

57%43%
  • TE157%(6)
  • TE243%(4)
Next-season PPG range12.1 median
7.5p25–p75 10.2–14.916.5
10 most similar players
Noah Fant84%
2020·TE11 · 10.7 PPG
Brock Bowers83%
2025·TE12 · 14.7 PPG
Tucker Kraft81%
2025·TE24 · 14.7 PPG
Jonnu Smith78%
2020·TE15 · 9.5 PPG
Chig Okonkwo75%
2023·TE21 · 6.7 PPG
T.J. Hockenson60%
2021·TE17 · 12.1 PPG

+4 more analogs

Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

Not enough recent NFL production to trust the fundamentals rank yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

1
  • QB Dependency

    Daniel Jones is now the entrenched starter over Anthony Richardson, and Warren's per-target efficiency is tied to Jones sustaining the passing volume the Colts have funneled his way — a QB downgrade is the clearest path to a value dip.

Opportunity Flags

3
  • Target Volume

    The offseason trade of Michael Pittman Jr. vacated over 100 targets, and reports have Warren stepping into a true No. 1 receiver-equivalent role with a path to a 1,000-yard season.

  • TD Regression

    Warren scored only 5 TDs against 9.0 expected in his rookie year, a finishing shortfall that projects to positively regress and lift scoring output even at flat volume.

  • Usage & Volume

    A Pro Bowl nod, a franchise rookie-TE reception record, and a stable 24% target share / 84% snap share with no meaningful depth-chart or draft-capital competition (Alie-Cox, Mallory, Ogletree) give Warren one of the safest volume bases at the position.

Format Comparison

Tyler Warren — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest4,726—
PPR SF4,363-363