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Tyler Shough headshot

Tyler Shough

QB · #20

NO · QB · Age 26

Redraft rank
QB19
•QB19 · Flex play
Tier
T2
Overall
#37
ADP
QB20
Consensus
Some split
Value vs ADP+1 slots of value
Our rank
QB19
vs
Market ADP
QB20
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Source agreement
±7 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
Neutral: Projection rank, ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-26 quarterbacks most similar to Tyler Shough's 2025 season, 1 finished QB1, 3 finished QB3, 3 finished QB4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

30%30%30%
  • QB110%(1)
  • QB330%(3)
  • QB4+30%(3)
  • Missed season30%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
70%hang on~10.1 PPG·30%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–11.819.5
10 most similar players
Daniel Jones97%
2024·QB28 · 13.5 PPG
Mitchell Trubisky96%
2021·QB55 · 1.3 PPG
Will Levis96%
2025·Missed the season
Derek Carr91%
2018·Missed the season
Joe Burrow87%
2024·QB6 · 21.9 PPG
Baker Mayfield84%
2022·QB30 · 10.1 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Shough enters 2026 as the New Orleans Saints' unquestioned starting QB after going 5-4 across nine starts and finishing as an Offensive Rookie of the Year finalist, with HC Kellen Moore publicly praising his weekly improvement and offseason leadership. His late-2025 finish (17-22 fantasy points in his final four games) flashed real upside, though the full-season QB26 / 14.4 PPG line still pegs him as a streamer-tier fantasy asset entering Year 2. The bull case is continuity plus a genuinely good weapon room — Chris Olave, R1 rookie Jordyn Tyson, Etienne, Kamara, and a deep TE group — with no same-position threat (Rattler is being shopped, Zach Wilson is depth). The bear case is a shaky offensive line, a thin career sample, and only second-round draft capital insulating him. This is a clear HOLD for current owners and a BUY-LOW for superflex teams over the next 1-2 years: cheap exposure to an ascending starter with a coaching-and-weapons setup built for a sophomore leap. Avoid paying breakout prices until the full-season production confirms the late-2025 surge.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Unproven Starter

    Shough has minimal NFL starting experience and hasn't demonstrated he can sustain success in a full season. His role with NO remains uncertain amid competition for the starting role.

  • Depleted Weapons

    New Orleans traded Rashid Shaheed to Seattle and released Brandin Cooks, leaving only Chris Olave as an established receiving weapon. The Saints desperately need to add pass-catchers in the 2026 draft (No. 8 pick) and free agency to maximize Shough's value.

  • Limited Starting Experience

    Shough has only 9 NFL starts (5-4 record) and management has cautioned about "skipping steps" in his development, acknowledging the need to temper expectations despite his strong finish. He hasn't demonstrated sustained success over a full 17-game season.

  • Offensive Context

    The Saints gave up the eighth-most sacks in 2025 and ranked 29th with a 56% pass-block win rate, significantly limiting Shough's ceiling and putting him at injury risk. This weakness persists into 2026 unless addressed in free agency or the draft.

  • Injury Concerns

    Shough sustained two broken collarbones and a broken fibula across three college seasons before staying healthy through all of 2025; the multi-injury pattern remains a watch item that could severely compress dynasty value if it resurfaces in the NFL.

  • Offensive Line

    David Edwards (OG, $45M guaranteed) is a genuine upgrade, but the Saints' OL unit still lacks the top-tier depth to be considered elite protection. Shough's mobility is a mitigant, but he remains exposed to sack and injury risk behind this front.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Second Year Leap

    The Saints are committed to Shough as their starting QB in 2026 and he drew attention as a potential Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate after the Saints won four straight games, establishing dynasty floor with ceiling potential in year two.

  • Franchise QB Momentum

    Shough won the 2025 Pepsi Zero Sugar NFL Rookie of the Year and set Saints rookie franchise records for passing yards and completion percentage, generating franchise and media momentum that supports organizational investment.

  • Development Path

    Shough won the 2025 Pepsi Zero Sugar NFL Rookie of the Year and set Saints rookie records for passing yards (2,384), completion percentage (67.6%), and passing TDs (10). This organizational and media momentum solidifies his QB1 status and generates positive dynasty sentiment.

  • Draft Capital

    The Saints hold the No. 8 overall pick in the 2026 draft with plans to add a top WR prospect like Carnell Tate or Jordyn Tyson, plus potential free agency moves targeting pass-catchers. This front office commitment to building around Shough signals long-term organizational investment.

  • Clear Starter Role

    Head coach Kellen Moore explicitly stated the team feels "great with Tyler" and is "excited to have a full offseason to build" around him. Shough has established clear QB1 status with Spencer Rattler firmly relegated to backup, eliminating competition concerns.

  • Elite Weapon Added

    The Saints drafted Jordyn Tyson R1 P8 — a 6'2" route-runner with WR1 ceiling who immediately slots beside Chris Olave. A healthy Tyson-Olave duo transforms New Orleans into a legitimate top-12 QB environment for 2026 and beyond.

Format Comparison

Tyler Shough — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest3,417—
PPR 1QB2,057-1,360