Tyler Allgeier

RB · #43

ARI · RB · Age 26

Redraft rank

RB47

RB47 · Depth+9 slots of value vs ADP

Tier

Overall

#220

ADP

RB56

Consensus

Coin flip

Value vs ADP+9 slots of value

Our rank

RB47

Market ADP

RB56

Projects better than the draft room is paying.

What’s driving the season rank

Case for

ADP value

RB56 ADP · +9 slots

Major

Case against

Projection rank

RB47 · proj. consensus

Notable

Source agreement

±30 rank σ · 2 sources

Notable

Neutral: Age / role

What similar players becameHigh confidence

Of the 10 age-25 backs most similar to Tyler Allgeier's 2025 season, 6 finished RB4+, 4 missed the season.

Veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

60%40%

RB4+60%(6)
Missed season40%(4)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip

60%hang on~5.0 PPG40%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range

0.0p25–p75 0.0–5.26.2

10 most similar players

Elijah Mitchell88%

2024Missed the season

Zamir White88%

2025RB92 · 1.9 PPG

Samaje Perine88%

2021RB57 · 5.2 PPG

Emanuel Wilson88%

2025RB49 · 5.3 PPG

Justice Hill87%

2023RB41 · 7.0 PPG

Tevin Coleman86%

2020RB110 · 2.1 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Allgeier walked into a worst-case landing spot: signed to be a complementary lead back, he was leapfrogged when Arizona drafted Jeremiyah Love No. 3 overall with record rookie-RB guarantees, cementing Love as the franchise RB1. Allgeier now sits as the No. 2/short-yardage option ahead of an aging James Conner and a knee-recovering Trey Benson, with a projected ~65:35 split favoring Love and a thin 7% target share that caps his PPR upside. His real dynasty value is contingent — Conner's age, Benson's health, and Love's rookie uncertainty give him a genuine injury-driven path to standalone volume, plus goal-line equity. At 26 with no receiving role and a generational talent ahead of him, the appreciation ceiling is low. Recommendation: HOLD as a cheap, high-floor handcuff/bye-week flex; sell only if a contender offers more than late-pick value, and don't pay up to acquire (timeframe: next season).

Our read vs. the market

Beta

Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line

Why

Average usage productionAverage carry shareAge 26 · peak windowTDs due to rebound

Our view vs Market↓ 1 pts below market

Our view

Market

TD rebound upside

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

Backfield Committee
Arizona drafted Jeremiyah Love No. 3 overall with the largest guaranteed rookie RB contract ever, locking Love in as RB1; Allgeier shares the rest with James Conner and Trey Benson in a projected ~65:35 Love-led split.
Age Concerns
Allgeier is 26 and entering the typical RB value-decline window, capping any long-term dynasty appreciation even if his role holds.
Usage & Volume
Stable but minimal 7% target share confines Allgeier to a two-down/short-yardage profile, suppressing his PPR floor (#41 RB, 7.2 PPG) behind a pass-catching-capable rookie.

Opportunity Flags

Contingent Value
Conner's age/injury history, Benson's knee, and Love's unproven rookie status give Allgeier a credible path to standalone lead-back volume if any injury hits the room.
Touchdown Equity
Allgeier profiles as a short-yardage/goal-line hammer, a role that can deliver spike-week TD value even in a committee.

Format Comparison

Tyler Allgeier — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR 1QBBest	1,683	—
PPR SF	1,423	-260

Format

Value

vs Best

PPR 1QBBest

1,683

—

PPR SF

1,423

-260