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Ty Johnson headshot

Ty Johnson

RB · #101

BUF · RB · Age 28

Redraft rank
RB53
▲RB53 · Depth+70 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T3
Overall
#249
ADP
RB123
Consensus
Coin flip

Ty Johnson's 2025 season saw his target share drop to a career-low 7%, signaling a diminished role in Buffalo's offense.

Role & trajectory
Johnson operates as the passing-down RB2 behind James Cook, with a carry share of just 8.4% and a snap share of 29.6%. His role is further threatened by Ray Davis's emergence as an early-down option.
Projected outlook
Johnson's fantasy value hinges on his ability to secure receiving work in PPR formats, but with a target share that has trended downward and no clear path to increased volume, his ceiling remains capped at flex status.
Risk & schedule
The Bills are evaluating cutting Johnson this offseason due to cap constraints, which could further compress his role or eliminate it entirely. Additionally, the team's focus on defensive drafting in 2026 suggests no immediate threat from incoming rookie competition.
Value vs ADP+70 slots of value
Our rank
RB53
vs
Market ADP
RB123
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
RB123 ADP · +70 slots
Major
Case against
−
Projection rank
RB53 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
Source agreement
±52 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-28 backs most similar to Ty Johnson's 2025 season, 1 finished RB2, 2 finished RB3, 4 finished RB4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

19%40%30%
  • RB211%(1)
  • RB319%(2)
  • RB4+40%(4)
  • Missed season30%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
70%hang on~5.2 PPG·30%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–9.911.0
10 most similar players
Jerick McKinnon95%
2022·RB19 · 10.5 PPG
Chase Edmonds90%
2024·Missed the season
Jonathan Williams86%
2022·RB94 · 3.7 PPG
Khalil Herbert86%
2025·RB97 · 1.3 PPG
Jordan Wilkins85%
2021·Missed the season
Boston Scott85%
2022·RB65 · 4.1 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Age Concerns2

    RB age 28 — entering/past typical value cliff

  • Release Candidate

    The Bills are actively evaluating whether to cut Johnson this offseason to create cap space, with insiders calling him a 'luxury' the team may not afford.

  • Cap Casualty Risk

    The Bills are evaluating cutting Johnson this offseason to create cap space, with insiders calling him a 'luxury' the team may not afford, and a potential cut would save $2.455 million.

  • Depth Chart

    Johnson sits at RB2 behind James Cook with Ray Davis (1906) also in the mix. His ceiling in a healthy Bills backfield is fringe flex/streaming — a #47 PPR finish through 17 games in a top-tier offense confirms the hard ceiling.

  • Usage & Volume

    He's the passing-down RB2 behind James Cook with Ray Davis (1972) widely viewed as the true handcuff if Cook misses time; the 2025 game logs show falling target share (7%) and just 5.9 PPG, RB47.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns2

    If Johnson is retained and Cook sustains injury, immediate flex-to-RB2 upside exists in PPR formats given his pass-catching skill.

  • Draft Capital

    Buffalo used all 10 of its 2026 draft picks on defense, selecting zero running backs. Johnson's handcuff path is not threatened by incoming draft capital — a meaningful update from the prior analysis that flagged RB draft displacement as a risk.

  • Usage & Volume

    Snap share rose from 26% in W15 to 33-38% in W16-W18, and carry share trended up to 30% late in the year. His 19.6-point W18 performance shows a ceiling when touches align, even if it is not a repeatable floor.

  • Handcuff Value

    If you roster James Cook, Johnson is a near-zero-cost contingency, though Ray Davis is the more valuable insurance piece for early-down volume.

  • Low Trade Market Value

    At a tier-10 valuation (1369.0 trade value), Johnson is undervalued relative to potential sneaky PPR contributions if Cook misses time. Could be acquired cheaply as injury insurance.

Format Comparison

Ty Johnson — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest532—
PPR SF437-95