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Treylon Burks headshot

Treylon Burks

WR · #136

WAS · WR · Age 26

Redraft rank
WR125
▲WR125 · Depth+16 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T4
Overall
#305
ADP
WR141
Consensus
Coin flip

Treylon Burks' recent injury-shortened season (only 8 games in 2025) and his history of durability issues limit his upside to a WR4/5 role, making him a bench stash at best.

Role & trajectory
Burks projects as a WR4/5 with a target share of just 5.8% and an air yards share of 9.2%, indicating limited volume in Washington's offense.
Projected outlook
Despite playing through injuries in 2025, Burks' efficiency metrics (aDOT=13.5, RACR=0.44, catch rate=45.5%) suggest he struggles to convert targets into production.
Risk & schedule
Competition from Terry McLaurin and rookie Antonio Williams for snaps and targets poses a significant threat to Burks' already limited role, further cementing his bench status.
Value vs ADP+16 slots of value
Our rank
WR125
vs
Market ADP
WR141
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
WR141 ADP · +16 slots
Major
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR125 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
Source agreement
±45 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-25 receivers most similar to Treylon Burks's 2025 season, 6 finished WR4+, 4 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

60%40%
  • WR4+60%(6)
  • Missed season40%(4)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
60%hang on~6.2 PPG·40%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–6.38.1
10 most similar players
Ashton Dulin93%
2022·WR123 · 6.1 PPG
James Washington92%
2022·Missed the season
John Ross91%
2022·Missed the season
Keith Kirkwood90%
2019·Missed the season
Kenny Golladay89%
2021·WR82 · 6.4 PPG
KhaDarel Hodge89%
2021·WR142 · 3.1 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Buy-low — we see clear value above the market price
Why
Solid usage productionSolid target shareAge 26 · ascendingTDs due to regress
  • ▲Draft-capital pedigree
  • ▲Touchdown-luck regression
Our view vs Market↑ 38 pts above market
Our view
40
Market
2
Long career runwayHigh draft pedigree

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns3

    Burks has missed significant time due to various injuries (hamstring, turf toe, concussion) throughout his career, limiting consistency and availability. Durability concerns remain a substantial hold-back on his ceiling.

  • Contract Situation

    Burks is currently a free agent after his one-year, $1.1M deal with Washington expired. His 2026 return to the Commanders is not guaranteed, creating significant uncertainty around his role and opportunity.

  • Target Competition

    Burks is buried behind Terry McLaurin (anchor) and rookie Antonio Williams (3rd-round pick projected for the underneath/slot role Burks would target), plus competing with Jaylin Lane, Luke McCaffrey and Dyami Brown for the remaining WR4/5 snaps. The room may still add a veteran (Aiyuk rumored), further squeezing him out.

  • Coaching Continuity

    Kliff Kingsbury was fired and first-time OC David Blough was promoted to play-caller for 2026. A new and unproven offensive coordinator adds meaningful uncertainty to target distribution and role definition.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Role Expansion

    Only three WRs (McLaurin, McCaffrey, Lane) guaranteed for 2026; Deebo and Noah Brown are free agents. Burks could land a prove-it deal and potentially claim #2 role if others depart.

  • New Team Reset

    Fresh start with Washington offers a chance to prove fit in an offensive system; if he emerges as the clear #2 WR, target volume could increase meaningfully from current levels.

  • Health Stabilization

    Despite collarbone and finger injuries in 2025, Burks showed durability by playing through mid-season setback and participating in all games from Week 13 onward—suggesting injury trend may be stabilizing.

  • Team Situation

    Head coach Dan Quinn specifically mentioned Burks when discussing 2026 returnees, and multiple reports indicate Washington wants to retain him on another low-cost deal given his flashes of production.

  • WR Depth Volatility

    Deebo Samuel and Noah Brown are free agents, Luke McCaffrey suffered a season-ending injury, and only McLaurin, Lane, and McCaffrey are guaranteed for 2026—creating potential pathways to the WR2/3 role.

  • Elite QB Context

    Jayden Daniels is a generational talent who elevates the entire WAS passing game. Even a 4th receiver in this offense has real fantasy floor when the QB is this good.

Format Comparison

Treylon Burks — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest675—
PPR SF572-103