Theo Johnson

The Giants signed Isaiah Likely to a 3-year, $40M deal in free agency under HC John Harbaugh, who has direct familiarity with Likely from Baltimore. Likely is now the presumed TE1 in target share, meaningfully capping Johnson's ceiling in the near term.

Isaiah Likely signed a 3-year/$40M deal following HC John Harbaugh from Baltimore, installing Likely as the unambiguous TE1 in New York. Johnson's ceiling is structurally capped for at least 3 seasons by a player Harbaugh has coached and specifically prioritized.

Johnson finished 2025 with only 45-528-5 on 72 targets despite being NYG's TE1. Malik Nabers' return from injury and the Giants' potential to add receiving weapons in free agency/draft could limit Johnson's target ceiling even if he maintains his starting role.

John Harbaugh was hired as Giants HC in January 2026 with offensive coordinator still uncertain. New scheme and philosophy could reduce TE usage or favor a different TE profile than Johnson's skill set, though Harbaugh has historically utilized TEs effectively in Baltimore.

Jaxson Dart enters Year 2 as the Giants' franchise QB but still needs to develop his full-field progression reads — his Ole Miss offense was first-read heavy. Johnson's target volume is directly tied to Dart's growth, scheme adoption, and durability.

The Giants are expected to prioritize offensive line with their top picks (No. 5 overall), signaling the unit remains a real weakness protecting Dart. A leaky OL compresses short-area TE usage and limits play-action downfield routes.

Bellinger has a history of soft tissue injuries; if he misses time, Johnson becomes the primary TE and gains immediate opportunity. At 24, he has time to prove his value in a larger role.

Johnson's target share exploded from 7% to 19% in the final month of the 2025 season, signaling trust in the offense. At 24 years old, he's entering prime development years with legitimate route-running chemistry building with his QB.

Despite being the No. 1 TE by targets, Johnson is still only in his second NFL season. The trajectory from role player to clear primary target creator suggests room for continued ascent as an offensive focal point.

Johnson's target share surged from 7% in his first eight games to 19% in the final four games of 2025, establishing him as the clear TE1. At 24.9 years old, he's entering his prime developmental window with elite size (6'6", 264 lbs) and athletic profile (4.57 forty at combine).

Jaxson Dart showed chemistry with Johnson in his rookie year and returns as the full-time starter in 2026 under new HC John Harbaugh. A second-year leap from Dart could significantly boost Johnson's production as Harbaugh prioritizes helping the young QB develop.

Harbaugh publicly praised the Likely-Johnson combination and has an established pattern of deploying two-TE sets — he used both Andrews and Likely simultaneously in Baltimore. If that carries over to New York, Johnson is scheme-relevant rather than a pure emergency option.