Opportunity Flags
1- Youth Upside
Young WR (23) — still in value appreciation phase
Tetairoa McMillan
WR · #9CAR · WR · Age 23
Redraft rank
WR15
WR15 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#61
ADP
WR16
Consensus
Tight
Tetairoa McMillan enters the 2025 season as a WR1 with an Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign under his belt, boasting elite opportunity metrics like a 47% air yards share and a 0.74 WOPR.
Role & trajectory
McMillan's role as Carolina's alpha wide receiver is secure with only rotational pieces behind him, though his target share dipped to 19-20% in the final month of last season compared to a 27% average.
Projected outlook
At 23 years old and coming off an award-winning rookie year, McMillan is poised for continued growth with Bryce Young's development and a playoff-caliber offense potentially elevating him from WR12 to top-5 production.
Risk & schedule
A minor foot/ankle issue kept McMillan out of OTA and minicamp drills, though the team expects full training camp participation. Additionally, Carolina's third-round pick on Chris Brazzell could limit McMillan's target share to 24-25%.
Value vs ADP+1 slots of value
Our rank
WR15
Market ADP
WR16
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rankNotableNotableMinor
Case for
Projection rank
WR15 · proj. consensus
Source agreement
±0 rank σ · 2 sources
Age / role
age 23 WR
Neutral: ADP value
What similar players becameMedium confidence
Of the 10 age-22 receivers most similar to Tetairoa McMillan's 2025 season, 4 finished WR1, 2 finished WR2, 1 finished WR3, 3 finished WR4+.
Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
40%20%31%
- WR140%(4)
- WR220%(2)
- WR310%(1)
- WR4+31%(3)
Next-season PPG range14.6 median
6.2p25–p75 11.5–16.519.4
10 most similar players
Drake London95%
2024WR6 · 16.5 PPG
Jonathan Mingo94%
2024WR131 · 2.3 PPG
Marvin Harrison Jr.91%
2025WR52 · 10.7 PPG
DJ Chark90%
2020WR49 · 11.8 PPG
DK Metcalf90%
2021WR17 · 14.4 PPG
Jakobi Meyers89%
2021WR34 · 11.6 PPG
+4 more analogs
Intel may be outdated · updated 16 days ago
Our read vs. the market
BetaNo call yetLow confidence
Not enough recent NFL production to trust the fundamentals rank yet — no call.
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (1 flags)
Format Comparison
Tetairoa McMillan — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 6,269 | — |
| PPR SF | 5,469 | -800 |