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Terrance Ferguson headshot

Terrance Ferguson

TE · #20

LAR · TE · Age 23

Redraft rank
TE30
◆TE30 · Flex play
Tier
T3
Overall
#195
ADP
TE21
Consensus
Coin flip

Terrance Ferguson's 20.8 YPR as a rookie is the most decision-relevant fact, but his limited target share (3%) in the playoffs and crowded TE room cap his upside.

Role & trajectory
Ferguson enters Year 2 with a rising snap share (43.5%), but his role is genuinely contested by Colby Parkinson, Tyler Higbee, and rookie Max Klare.
Projected outlook
At TE30 on our value board, Ferguson remains in the value-appreciation window for TEs, with a speculative-buy tilt at tier-5 price (~2500).
Risk & schedule
The deep TE competition and looming QB transition (Ty Simpson behind aging Stafford) pose significant risks to Ferguson's near-term target ceiling.
Value vs ADP-9 slots (reach)
Our rank
TE30
vs
Market ADP
TE21
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Age / role
age 23 TE
Minor
Case against
−
ADP value
TE21 ADP · -9 slots
Major
−
Source agreement
±41 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Projection rank
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-22 tight ends most similar to Terrance Ferguson's 2025 season, 2 finished TE1, 2 finished TE2, 1 finished TE3, 4 finished TE4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

19%20%41%
  • TE119%(2)
  • TE220%(2)
  • TE311%(1)
  • TE4+41%(4)
  • Missed season9%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range6.0 median
1.2p25–p75 4.3–12.513.3
10 most similar players
O.J. Howard76%
2018·TE13 · 12.1 PPG
Robert Tonyan72%
2019·TE61 · 2.9 PPG
Foster Moreau70%
2021·TE27 · 6.6 PPG
Will Dissly68%
2019·TE38 · 12.3 PPG
Harrison Bryant65%
2022·TE39 · 4.4 PPG
Mark Andrews65%
2019·TE4 · 13.4 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

Not enough recent NFL production to trust the fundamentals rank yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Target Volume

    The LAR TE room is deep and crowded: Colby Parkinson holds the lead receiving role (56 targets in 2025), Tyler Higbee remains a fixture (~500 snaps), and the Rams spent R2 P29 on Max Klare — capping Ferguson's near-term target ceiling. His 3% playoff target share and #48 PPR finish reflect a narrow deep-only carve-out, not a featured role.

  • QB Dependency

    Matthew Stafford is aging and the Rams drafted Ty Simpson R1 P13, signaling an imminent succession. A transition to a rookie QB typically suppresses TE efficiency and deep-shot volume — Ferguson's vertical, high-aDOT archetype is especially sensitive to QB downgrade.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • Role Expansion

    The Rams are shifting toward heavier 12/13 personnel that expands available TE snaps, and McVay has publicly endorsed Ferguson's ability to play any TE or WR alignment. He led all TEs in yards per reception (20.8) as a rookie — if Higbee fades and the deep role grows, a real Year-2/3 leap is plausible.

  • Age Trajectory

    At 23 in only his second season, Ferguson remains in the value-appreciation window for the TE position, which develops and peaks later than RB/WR. Cheap acquisition cost with multi-year runway.

Format Comparison

Terrance Ferguson — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,598—
PPR SF1,425-173