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TE #180
Terrance Ferguson headshot
Terrance Ferguson headshot

Terrance Ferguson

Tier 10

LAR · TE · Age 23

Last synced 1 day ago

Dynasty Value

1,327Declining

Ferguson enters year 2 as a 23-year-old vertical field-stretcher with a clear long-term runway but a murky near-term role: beat reporting slots him behind...

Trajectory data unavailable
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (13 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Target Volume

    Despite showing promising late-season production, Ferguson remains third on the depth chart behind Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee. In 11-personnel packages, Parkinson gets the bulk of snaps, limiting Ferguson's volume upside in key situations.

  • Usage & Volume

    Ferguson's role has been inconsistent—completely healthy-scratched early season, then emerging in heavy 13-personnel sets late. His production (11 rec, 231 yards, 3 TD over 14 games) lacks consistency and volume for a 2nd-round capital investment.

  • Draft Capital

    The Rams hold the No. 13 overall pick and are heavily linked to Oregon TE Kenyon Sadiq (4.39 40 at the Combine, fastest ever for a TE). The draft is April 23–25 — imminent — and a Round 1 TE addition would directly crowd an already-congested depth chart and materially cap Ferguson's path to TE1.

  • Depth Chart Block

    Tyler Higbee re-signed on a 2-year deal in March 2026, eliminating the most commonly cited upside path for Ferguson. With Higbee, Parkinson, Klare, and Davis Allen all on roster, Ferguson is at best the 2nd or 3rd option for at least the next two seasons.

  • Injury Concerns

    Ferguson suffered a hamstring injury in early January 2026 that forced him to miss playoff games, though he returned to full participation by the divisional round. Hamstring injuries can linger and affect explosiveness, which is crucial for his deep-threat role.

  • Coaching Continuity

    OC Mike LaFleur departed for Arizona's head coaching role; Nate Scheelhaase is promoted internally and Kliff Kingsbury joins as assistant head coach. The 13-personnel identity is expected to continue, but a new play-caller introduces target-distribution uncertainty during the adaptation period.

Opportunity Flags

7
  • Elite Receiving Metrics

    Ferguson leads all NFL tight ends in average depth of target at 18.3 yards, showing Sean McVay is deploying him as a vertical threat. With 5 catches of 25+ yards (most by a Rams rookie TE in 35 years), his ceiling is elite-level IF volume increases.

  • Mcvay System Alignment

    McVay explicitly praised Ferguson's coachability and growth trajectory mid-season. Ferguson earned 64%+ snap counts over final 3 weeks before injury, suggesting coaching staff trust and a clear path to expanded role if opportunity presents itself.

  • Athletic Profile

    Ferguson leads all NFL tight ends in average depth of target at 18.3 yards and posted a 4.63 40-time with a 96th percentile Relative Athletic Score. At 22.9 years old, he has elite physical tools for a vertical-threat TE in Sean McVay's system.

  • Late Season Role Expansion

    Ferguson earned 64%+ snap counts over the final three weeks before injury, showing coaching staff trust and a clear trajectory toward expanded opportunity. McVay explicitly praised his coachability and growth mid-season.

  • Parkinson Displacement Potential

    Colby Parkinson has not proven himself as a passing-game threat, and Ferguson surpassed him in receiving utility by season's end. If McVay shifts Ferguson into more 11-personnel work, his snap share and dynasty value could spike significantly.

  • Depth Chart

    Tyler Higbee (1062 value) is weighing retirement for 2026. If he exits, a meaningful chunk of TE targets opens within the existing scheme, and Ferguson — the youngest and most athletically gifted TE on the roster — is the primary beneficiary as a cheap, controlled asset through 2028.

  • Youth Upside

    Young TE (23) — still in value appreciation phase

Scenarios (4)
  • Higbee fades, Ferguson wins receiving-TE rolepossible+35%

    Higbee injury/decline frees TE targets and Ferguson out-snaps Klare in camp

  • Klare and Parkinson cap Ferguson as rotational deep threatlikely-10%

    R2 rookie Klare earns the move-TE snaps; Ferguson stays a 30-40% snap specialist

  • QB transition suppresses TE efficiencypossible-20%

    Stafford retires after 2026, Ty Simpson takes over with a rookie's reduced TE-friendly passing

  • Two-way breakout into back-end TE1unlikely+45%

    Higbee released/injured and Adams declines, Ferguson absorbs 70%+ snaps and red-zone looks

Format Comparison

Terrance Ferguson — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,566—
PPR SF1,327-239