Terrance Ferguson

TE · #20

LAR · TE · Age 23

Redraft rank

TE30

TE30 · Flex play

Tier

Overall

#195

ADP

TE21

Consensus

Coin flip

Value vs ADP-9 slots (reach)

Our rank

TE30

Market ADP

TE21

Drafted earlier than the projection supports.

What’s driving the season rank

Case for

Age / role

age 23 TE

Minor

Case against

ADP value

TE21 ADP · -9 slots

Major

Source agreement

±41 rank σ · 2 sources

Notable

Neutral: Projection rank

What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-22 tight ends most similar to Terrance Ferguson's 2025 season, 2 finished TE1, 2 finished TE2, 1 finished TE3, 4 finished TE4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

19%20%41%

TE119%(2)
TE220%(2)
TE311%(1)
TE4+41%(4)
Missed season9%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range6.0 median

1.2p25–p75 4.3–12.513.3

10 most similar players

O.J. Howard76%

2018TE13 · 12.1 PPG

Robert Tonyan72%

2019TE61 · 2.9 PPG

Foster Moreau70%

2021TE27 · 6.6 PPG

Will Dissly68%

2019TE38 · 12.3 PPG

Harrison Bryant65%

2022TE39 · 4.4 PPG

Mark Andrews65%

2019TE4 · 13.4 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Ferguson enters Year 2 as a 23-year-old vertical field-stretcher who flashed elite efficiency as a rookie (league-best 20.8 YPR, 17.6 aDOT) but in a tightly capped role — 4.2 PPG, #48 PPR, and just a 3% target share through the playoff run. His path to volume is genuinely contested: Colby Parkinson holds the lead receiving job, Tyler Higbee remains entrenched, and the Rams added R2 pick Max Klare at the same position. Two catalysts could change the trajectory — a shift toward heavier 12/13 personnel that grows TE snaps and McVay's endorsement of Ferguson's positional flexibility — but the offsetting risk is a looming QB transition (R1 Ty Simpson behind aging Stafford) that threatens his deep-target-dependent archetype. This is a HOLD with a speculative-buy tilt: at a tier-5 price (~2500) with multi-year runway, he's a worthwhile cheap dart for contending-window patience, but don't pay up until the role expands. Timeframe: re-evaluate after 2026 training-camp usage and the QB depth-chart resolution.

Our read vs. the market

Beta

No call yetLow confidence

Not enough recent NFL production to trust the fundamentals rank yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

Target Volume
The LAR TE room is deep and crowded: Colby Parkinson holds the lead receiving role (56 targets in 2025), Tyler Higbee remains a fixture (~500 snaps), and the Rams spent R2 P29 on Max Klare — capping Ferguson's near-term target ceiling. His 3% playoff target share and #48 PPR finish reflect a narrow deep-only carve-out, not a featured role.
QB Dependency
Matthew Stafford is aging and the Rams drafted Ty Simpson R1 P13, signaling an imminent succession. A transition to a rookie QB typically suppresses TE efficiency and deep-shot volume — Ferguson's vertical, high-aDOT archetype is especially sensitive to QB downgrade.

Opportunity Flags

Role Expansion
The Rams are shifting toward heavier 12/13 personnel that expands available TE snaps, and McVay has publicly endorsed Ferguson's ability to play any TE or WR alignment. He led all TEs in yards per reception (20.8) as a rookie — if Higbee fades and the deep role grows, a real Year-2/3 leap is plausible.
Age Trajectory
At 23 in only his second season, Ferguson remains in the value-appreciation window for the TE position, which develops and peaks later than RB/WR. Cheap acquisition cost with multi-year runway.

Format Comparison

Terrance Ferguson — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR 1QBBest	1,598	—
PPR SF	1,425	-173

Format

Value

vs Best

PPR 1QBBest

1,598

—

PPR SF

1,425

-173