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Tanner Koziol headshot

Tanner Koziol

TE · #52

JAX · TE · Age 22

Redraft rank
TE66
◆TE66 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#364
ADP
TE54
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADP-12 slots (reach)
Our rank
TE66
vs
Market ADP
TE54
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Age / role
age 22 TE
Minor
Case against
−
Projection rank
TE66 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
TE54 ADP · -12 slots
Major
Neutral: Source agreement
Analysis

Tanner Koziol is a 5th-round (No. 164) developmental TE stash whose dynasty case rests entirely on elite college production — he led all FBS tight ends in targets and receptions in 2025 with a 29.3% target share that topped his entire rookie class. The problem is the depth chart: he sits behind starter Brenton Strange AND R2 rookie Nate Boerkircher, the Jaguars' clear long-term bet after they double-dipped at the position. Strange's pending free agency after 2026 creates a genuine 2027 opening, but Koziol must beat a player drafted three rounds ahead of him to capitalize. This is a low-cost lottery ticket: the production profile is legitimately exciting, but the path requires both Strange leaving and Koziol out-developing Boerkircher. Recommendation: HOLD if owned, and only a speculative late-rookie/cheap BUY in deeper TE-premium formats where the 1-2 year payoff justifies the roster spot — avoid paying anything meaningful given the buried role. Re-evaluate after 2026 training camp reports and the post-2026 Strange decision.

Also see:

Prospect Profile2026 Class

22.4Composite Score

Composite Breakdown

Each row compares Tanner Koziol to other 2026 prospects in that signal — except Class × Draft Slot, which shows the editorial multiplier applied to Tanner Koziol's 2026-class + draft-slot combo (baseline 1.00× = neutral).

Computed from 3 of 6 signals

  • Draft Capital25%▼~averageRound 5, Pick 152
  • Combine Athletic17%•~average
  • Rookie ADP17%
  • Expert Consensus17%
  • College Production15%
  • Class × Draft Slot9%▲+5% (1.05×)+5% (1.05×)0.60

Class rank: 46th percentile

40-Yd65%
Vertical86%
Broad85%
Speed57%
Burst87%
HaSS69%
SPARQ-x86%
BMI1%
Catch Rad.97%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Tanner Koziol's Speed Score?
Tanner Koziol's Speed Score ranks in the 57th percentile among NFL prospects at the position.
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (9 flags)

Risk Flags

4
  • Target Competition2

    Nate Boerkircher (R2, pick 56) was drafted three rounds ahead of Koziol in the same class and is the favored long-term piece if Strange departs. Koziol must leapfrog him to claim the 2027 starting role, a steep capital disadvantage.

  • Depth Chart

    Koziol projects as TE3 or TE4 in Jacksonville behind Brenton Strange, Nate Boerkircher, and others — meaningful snaps as a rookie are unlikely, making him fantasy-irrelevant in 2026.

  • Draft Capital

    Selected 164th overall (5th round), signaling the Jaguars view Koziol as a developmental piece rather than an immediate contributor; low draft capital reduces his urgency in the offense.

Opportunity Flags

5
  • Role Expansion

    Brenton Strange is set to become a free agent after the 2026 season, creating a realistic path for Koziol to compete for or win the starting TE role as early as 2027.

  • Production Profile

    Koziol led all FBS tight ends with 74 receptions and ranked 2nd in receiving yards (726) in 2025, earning First-Team All-Big 12 honors — elite volume production at the college level validates his hands and route running.

  • Scheme Fit

    At 6'6", 247 lbs with elite contested-catch ability, Koziol profiles as a red-zone mismatch weapon; Jacksonville has historically struggled in the red zone, giving him a defined role to grow into.

  • Youth Upside

    Young TE (22) — still in value appreciation phase

  • Age Concerns

    Born March 29, 2004, Koziol is just 22 years old — young for a player with five years of college experience, giving him ample runway to develop into a legitimate starter by his mid-20s.

Format Comparison

Tanner Koziol — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest70—
PPR 1QB60-10