T.J. Hockenson

Hockenson's production has decreased since a 2023 torn right ACL, and it's not out of the question that the Vikings will ask him to take a pay cut or possibly move on from him altogether in 2026. Hockenson's cap number is just over $21 million in 2026, and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah could restructure that, but one analyst forecasted a release.

Hockenson's production has significantly declined since having 95 catches for 960 yards with five touchdowns before tearing the ACL and MCL in his right knee 15 games into the 2023 season, with 92 catches for 893 yards and three touchdowns in 19 games in the two seasons after the knee injury.

Minnesota's offensive line spent the season bleeding bodies, and Kevin O'Connell responded by quietly turning Hockenson into OL support, with O'Connell even admitting the role shift out loud by midseason.

Minnesota's quarterback carousel certainly didn't help, with J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer never stabilizing the passing game.

The restructure voided Hockenson's final contract year, making him a UFA after 2026 at age 29. Dynasty owners face real trajectory uncertainty — and the Vikings were reportedly scouting TE successors during the draft cycle, signaling the organization is not committed long-term to him as their answer at the position.

Target share collapsed to 4% in Week 16, swinging from 4% to 21% across the final four games of 2025. This volatility undermines any floor narrative and indicates Hockenson does not hold a locked-in target role — his usage fluctuates with gamescript rather than reflecting guaranteed volume.

If the Vikings move on from Hockenson, he could be a realistic candidate for Washington to fill its starting tight end position. Hockenson is still only 28, and when healthy, he's proven to be among the NFL's better receiving tight ends, fitting perfectly as a middle-of-the-field option.

The Vikings signed Kyler Murray as the expected 2026 starter after his Cardinals release. Murray has a strong historical pattern of leaning on tight ends as checkdown targets — Zach Ertz finished top-5 fantasy TE over 11 games with Murray at QB in 2021. This is the single biggest upside catalyst for Hockenson's dynasty value.

The 2025 dip was largely scheme-driven (forced into OL support due to line injuries), a role O'Connell admitted to mid-season. A healthier line frees him to return to a true receiving TE1 role behind only Jefferson.

No significant TE competition was added in free agency. Josh Oliver (backup) and an injured Ben Bartholomew are the only depth options. A potential Oscar Delp draft selection would be developmental only. Hockenson enters 2026 as the unquestioned TE1 with a clear path to targets.

With the final year voided and free agency looming after 2026, Hockenson has maximum financial motivation to produce. His incentives are fully aligned with fantasy owners — a strong bounce-back earns him a new multi-year deal, which is the best outcome for both his career and dynasty roster value.

Murray has historically supported productive TEs and offers a stable veteran target distribution; if he wins the job, Hockenson is the clear underneath/seam outlet behind Jefferson and Addison.