Risk Flags
1- Target Volume
2025 target share trended down across the season before stabilizing near 18% in the final month; camp reporting points to an expanded 2026 pass-game role, but that remains unconfirmed by live usage.
Saquon Barkley
RB · #13PHI · RB · Age 29
START
Saquon Barkley's recent carry share of 73.1% in his last game signals he is the primary rusher for PHI, despite competition from Jordan Mims.
Role & volume
Barkley has maintained a high rushing volume with an average carry share of 64.9% over his last four games, indicating he is the lead back in this committee.
Projected role
Despite Jordan Mims returning to the roster, Barkley's recent performance and team context suggest he will continue as the primary rusher for PHI, with a projected carry share of around 60-70%.
Range (floor–ceiling)
Barkley's floor is set by his lowest PPR points total in recent games at 6.8, while his ceiling remains high given his role and the potential for increased targets as a receiver out of the backfield.
Intel may be outdated · updated 6 days ago
Current statusPHI
Our read vs. the market
BetaFairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionElite carry shareAge 29 · window closingTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↑ 1 pts above market
Our view
83
Market
82
High draft pedigreeProducing above valueElite carry share
Our own read · beta — not a trade price.
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (3 flags)
Opportunity Flags
2- Elite Production
A real red-zone workload produced 12.3 expected touchdowns against only 9 scored, a -3.3 shortfall that marks him as a positive touchdown-regression candidate independent of any scheme change.
- Scheme Fit
New offensive coordinator Sean Mannion installed a wide-zone rushing scheme with heavier under-center usage for 2026, and camp reporting described a deliberate push to grow Barkley's role in the passing game.
Format Comparison
Saquon Barkley — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 4,521 | — |
| PPR SF | 3,824 | -697 |