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Roman Wilson headshot

Roman Wilson

WR · #139

PIT · WR · Age 25

Redraft rank
WR160
◆WR160 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#478
ADP
WR104
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP-56 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR160
vs
Market ADP
WR104
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR160 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
WR104 ADP · -56 slots
Major
−
Source agreement
±23 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-24 receivers most similar to Roman Wilson's 2025 season, 5 finished WR4+, 5 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

50%50%
  • WR4+50%(5)
  • Missed season50%(5)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
50%hang on~6.3 PPG·50%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–6.37.9
10 most similar players
Jalen Tolbert96%
2024·WR46 · 8.9 PPG
Keith Kirkwood95%
2019·Missed the season
Demarcus Robinson93%
2019·WR67 · 6.3 PPG
Ashton Dulin93%
2022·WR123 · 6.1 PPG
Denzel Mims92%
2022·WR135 · 3.3 PPG
Mack Hollins91%
2018·Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Roman Wilson enters a make-or-break third season as, at best, the Steelers' WR4 behind DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., and 2nd-round rookie Germie Bernard, with even his roster spot openly characterized as unsettled by Pittsburgh beat reporters. The encouraging counterweight is real but thin: he reportedly out-repped Bernard at WR3 during OTAs and earned effusive McCarthy praise, suggesting the door isn't fully shut. Still, the structural picture is bleak — two 2026 same-position draft picks, a collapsing 5% target share, a WR120 healthy season, and a one-year Aaron Rodgers window with a redshirting Allar behind him. This is a SELL: cash any residual buzz value now (his name still carries draft-pedigree shine in shallower dynasty markets) rather than holding through a camp battle he's more likely to lose than win. If you can't find a buyer, holding through training camp to see if the WR3 reps stick is a defensible low-cost gamble, but do not pay to acquire. Recommendation: sell within the next 2-4 weeks while OTA optimism props up the price.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

Not enough recent NFL production to trust the fundamentals rank yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Depth Chart2

    Wilson was benched behind veterans Thielen, MVS, and Scotty Miller despite injuries to Austin and Metcalf suspension. Beat reporters cite performance concerns, suggesting organizational loss of confidence.

  • Target Volume

    Wilson's target share fell to just 5% in his most recent game despite 44% snap rate, indicating he is consistently being schemed around rather than through. His 4.3 PPG and PPR rank of #120 through 9 games confirm he has been unable to establish a consistent role.

  • Roster Security

    Multiple beat reporters and dynasty outlets (Fantasy Footballers, Last Word on Sports, AtoZ Sports) identify Wilson as a trade or cut candidate post-draft. With Wetjen (R4), Skowronek, and others also on the roster, Wilson's spot on the 53-man roster is no longer secure.

  • Career Production

    Two NFL seasons have produced just 12 catches, 166 yards, and 2 TDs — a deeply disappointing return on a 3rd-round investment. His last four logged games averaged 3.6 PPR points with two zero-point performances and a 5% target share ceiling.

  • Draft Capital

    Pittsburgh traded up in Round 2 for Germie Bernard and added Kaden Wetjen in Round 4 — two same-position picks that crowd the depth chart and signal the front office is not banking on Wilson's development.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Scheme Fit

    Mike McCarthy's West Coast offense is historically friendlier to multiple WR sets and quick timing. McCarthy has Rodgers/Green Bay connections that favor higher-volume receivers.

  • Veteran Exit Potential

    Adam Thielen and MVS are short-term rentals; if either leaves in free agency, Wilson gains a realistic opportunity to claim the WR3/slot role with fresh coaching staff.

  • Veteran Departure Window

    MVS and Adam Thielen are veteran free agents who could depart in 2026 offseason, potentially opening WR3/4 competition for Wilson if he improves in camp.

  • Age Profile

    Wilson is 24 years old and was a 2024 third-round pick, giving him legitimate developmental runway. The Steelers have retained him through setbacks, signaling organizational belief in his long-term potential despite the crowded room.

  • Trade Upside

    At 24 with 3rd-round draft capital, Wilson is a credible reclamation target for a WR-needy team. A change of scenery to a thinner depth chart could instantly reopen a viable target-share path within a single offseason.

  • Offseason Momentum

    Wilson reportedly took WR3 reps ahead of Bernard during OTAs, and HC Mike McCarthy has repeatedly praised his offseason ('crushing it,' 'a lot there to work with'), giving him a genuine, if fragile, path to the No. 3 role.

Format Comparison

Roman Wilson — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest970—
PPR SF754-216