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Riley Leonard headshot

Riley Leonard

QB · #52

IND · QB · Age 23

Redraft rank
QB45
▲QB45 · Depth+16 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T4
Overall
#379
ADP
QB61
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADP+16 slots of value
Our rank
QB45
vs
Market ADP
QB61
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
QB61 ADP · +16 slots
Major
+
Age / role
age 23 QB
Minor
Case against
−
Projection rank
QB45 · proj. consensus
Notable
Neutral: Source agreement
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-23 quarterbacks most similar to Riley Leonard's 2025 season, 1 finished QB1, 5 finished QB4+, 4 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

48%42%
  • QB110%(1)
  • QB4+48%(5)
  • Missed season42%(4)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range2.6 median
0.0p25–p75 0.0–4.616.2
10 most similar players
Nathan Peterman94%
2018·QB46 · 3.2 PPG
Jarrett Stidham89%
2021·Missed the season
Tyson Bagent86%
2025·Missed the season
Malik Willis86%
2023·Missed the season
Kyle Allen83%
2021·Missed the season
Tyler Huntley81%
2022·QB39 · 11.4 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Riley Leonard is a cheap, trending-up developmental QB whose internal standing has quietly improved — the Colts re-signed Daniel Jones as the 2026 starter, but Leonard is now viewed as a legitimate backup option and is in a 50/50 QB2 competition with the disgruntled Anthony Richardson. The key catalyst is Richardson, who requested a trade in February, had his fifth-year option declined, and could be dealt after August 1; his departure would cement Leonard as the next man up behind an Achilles-recovering, short-contract Jones. Leonard's lone 2025 start (Week 18: 270 yards, 2 TDs, 22.6 fantasy pts) earned coaching praise, but his body of work is otherwise mop-up duty (6.2 PPG, QB#50). The ceiling is real only via attrition, and the floor is permanent clipboard status if Jones stays healthy and Indy adds a QB in 2027. Recommendation: speculative HOLD, or a near-free BUY in deep Superflex leagues over the next 1-2 years — his cost is low enough that the Richardson-trade and Jones-injury optionality make him a worthwhile dart throw, but he is not a roster-clogger in shallow formats.

Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • QB Competition

    With Daniel Jones still available as a free agent and the Colts' clear preference for veteran QB play (signing 44-year-old Philip Rivers mid-season), Leonard is unlikely to be the franchise starter heading into 2026.

  • Depth Chart

    Leonard is firmly entrenched as QB3 behind Daniel Jones (who the Colts plan to re-sign to a multi-year deal) and potentially Anthony Richardson. GM Chris Ballard stated Leonard is being evaluated as a potential QB2, not a starter.

  • Franchise Commitment Jones

    Multiple reports confirm the Colts plan to open multi-year contract talks with Daniel Jones, who posted elite efficiency numbers (68% completion, 8.1 YPA, 100.2 rating) before his Achilles injury. Jones expects to be ready by training camp 2026.

  • Depth Chart Ceiling

    Daniel Jones is locked in as the Colts' QB1 on a 2-year, $88M contract with $60M guaranteed. The franchise's financial commitment essentially forecloses Leonard's path to a long-term starting role barring a Jones bust-out or catastrophic injury, relegating him to emergency duty.

  • Starter Access Risk

    Leonard's only realistic near-term path to meaningful starts is a Jones Achilles setback delaying his 2026 return. If Jones is healthy for Week 1, Leonard likely replicates his 2025 role — logging minimal snaps and accumulating near-zero dynasty production all season.

  • QB Dependency

    Daniel Jones was re-signed and is the expected Week 1 starter (recovering from a torn Achilles but on track), leaving Leonard with no clear path to volume in 2026 absent injury. His season line (6.2 PPG, #50 QB) reflects a pure backup with one meaningful start (Week 18).

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Youth Development Window

    At 23.4 years old, Leonard is entering his prime learning years with multiple seasons ahead to develop. Early struggles don't disqualify him from becoming a long-term QB1.

  • Backup Role Security

    Leonard holds the QB1 role on the depth chart entering 2026 with a clear development pathway. If Jones leaves in free agency, he becomes the automatic #2 behind whatever veteran the Colts add.

  • Starter Equity

    Jones tore his Achilles in December 2025 and while the Colts are optimistic about Week 1, Achilles recoveries carry real setback risk. Even 4-6 starts for Leonard in 2026 would meaningfully spike his dynasty value from basement tier and force genuine re-evaluation of his long-term role.

  • Depth Chart

    Richardson requested a trade in February (unrescinded), the Colts declined his fifth-year option, and a move could happen after August 1 — his exit would hand Leonard the clear QB2 job and the next-man-up role behind an injury-prone Jones.

  • Offensive Context

    Any Leonard starts come with an elite supporting cast: Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, and Michael Pittman are legitimate NFL weapons. This is a top-tier surrounding environment that could dramatically inflate his fantasy output if he earns snaps.

  • Depth Chart Clarity

    With the 5th-year option almost certainly declined and Richardson's trade request unresolved post-draft, Leonard is on the verge of becoming the clear QB2. GM Ballard said he is 'very encouraged by Riley' and coach Steichen is eager to give him OTA reps.

Format Comparison

Riley Leonard — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest638—
PPR 1QB434-204