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Ricky Pearsall headshot

Ricky Pearsall

WR · #44

SF · WR · Age 25

Redraft rank
WR48
•WR48 · Depth
Tier
T3
Overall
#126
ADP
WR44
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP-4 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR48
vs
Market ADP
WR44
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR48 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
WR44 ADP · -4 slots
Notable
−
Source agreement
±12 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 receivers most similar to Ricky Pearsall, 1 finished WR1, 1 finished WR2, 2 finished WR3, 6 finished WR4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast.

21%60%
  • WR110%(1)
  • WR29%(1)
  • WR321%(2)
  • WR4+60%(6)
Year-two PPG range9.2 median
5.7p25–p75 7.4–12.114.7
10 most similar players
Michael Wilson95%
2024·WR61 · 7.8 PPG
Jayden Reed94%
2024·WR30 · 11.4 PPG
Christian Watson83%
2023·WR59 · 9.6 PPG
Jahan Dotson77%
2023·WR53 · 7.3 PPG
Calvin Austin77%
2024·WR69 · 6.6 PPG
Brandon Aiyuk76%
2023·WR10 · 14.7 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Pearsall enters a pivotal contract-year Year 3 as the 49ers' top returning young receiver, but the room got more crowded, not clearer: San Francisco signed Mike Evans to lead the position, added Christian Kirk, and drafted De'Zhaun Stribling in Round 2, even as Aiyuk (voided $27M), Jennings, and Bourne exit. The bull case is real — vacated targets, an elite Purdy/Shanahan system, and widespread breakout buzz — but it's tempered by a high-severity durability profile (just 20 games in two years, never 600+ yards) and a late-2025 usage fade (7% target share in the divisional playoff loss). At Tier 4 / value and only 25 years old, the risk/reward skews favorable for contenders comfortable with volatility. Recommendation: modest BUY-LOW over the next 1-2 years while sentiment and price sit depressed, but HOLD expectations on his 2026 ceiling given Evans/Kirk ahead of him — this is a bet on a healthy Year 3 and a longer-term WR1 path if Evans ages out. Monitor the fifth-year option decision and training-camp target-share signals before paying up.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Slight buy-low — we value him a bit above the marketSlight
Why
Solid usage productionSolid target shareAge 25 · ascendingTDs due to regress
  • ▲Dynasty age curve
  • ▲Expected fantasy points
  • ▲Opportunity share
Our view vs Market↑ 17 pts above market
Our view
84
Market
67
TD regression riskLong career runway

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns2

    Pearsall missed six games in 2025 due to a PCL sprain in his right knee and aggravated the injury in Week 17. He is a borderline injury-prone player, having missed significant time in both his rookie and second seasons.

  • Chronic Knee Injuries

    Pearsall's PCL injury plagued him all season (9 games missed) and re-aggravated in Week 17. Missed playoffs entirely except for questionable status. This is his second year with major durability issues (11 games in 2024, 10 in 2025).

  • Usage & Volume

    Target share has fallen to just 7% in his final logged game (W20), and the season trend shows both target share and snap share moving down. His floor is dangerously low if he cannot assert himself against a newly competitive WR room.

  • Target Volume

    The 49ers are all but certain to move on from Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings is a free agent and Ricky Pearsall has struggled to stay healthy. The team will likely find a difference-making wide receiver, adding external depth threat uncertainty.

  • Role Uncertainty

    With only Pearsall and Demarcus Robinson under contract for 2026, and Jennings potentially returning on a $22M/year deal, Pearsall's target share remains unclear. He's never been a true WR1 and could be relegated to WR3 duties if SF adds talent.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Wr1 Pathway

    With George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey aging and Brandon Aiyuk's future uncertain, Pearsall could rise to the WR1 role in San Francisco by next year. At just 25.4 years old, he has the prime age advantage.

  • Kittle Absence Targets

    Kittle's torn Achilles creates 120+ target vacancies in 2026. As a primary slot/underneath option, Pearsall can absorb significant volume if healthy, improving his floor and ceiling materially.

  • Aiyuk Departure

    Aiyuk's formal exit opens the WR1 role. Pearsall (age 25.4) is best-positioned to claim it over Jennings, Bourne, and Watkins. When healthy, he's Purdy's preferred target and system fit in Shanahan's offense.

  • Target Vacancies

    George Kittle's torn Achilles creates 120+ target vacancies, and Brandon Aiyuk is officially done in SF per GM John Lynch. If healthy, Pearsall is positioned to absorb significant volume in a Shanahan offense with stable QB Brock Purdy locked through 2030.

  • Vacated Targets

    Aiyuk ($27M voided, expected to depart), Jennings, and Bourne are all gone, clearing a large target pool. Pearsall is the only returning young perimeter receiver with established chemistry with Purdy.

  • Injury Opportunity

    George Kittle tore his Achilles in the playoffs and is targeting a Week 1 2026 return, but a second Achilles-related absence would massively redirect targets toward the WR room. Pearsall would be the primary beneficiary as the WR2 behind Evans.

Format Comparison

Ricky Pearsall — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,467—
PPR SF2,075-392