Ray Davis

RB · #71

BUF · RB · Age 26

Redraft rank

RB62

RB62 · Depth+64 slots of value vs ADP

Tier

Overall

#281

ADP

RB126

Consensus

Tight

Ray Davis's carry share collapsed to just 58 carries in a full season, leaving him with almost no standalone touch floor.

Role & trajectory

Davis projects as the early-down lead back if James Cook misses time but enters 2026 behind Cook and Ty Johnson on the depth chart.

Projected outlook

His offensive role in 2025 saw his carry share drop to just 9.7%, with a snap share of only 18.3% indicating limited opportunities for meaningful fantasy production.

Risk & schedule

Entering the typical RB value-decline window at age 26, Davis faces competition from established players and lacks an injury-dependent path to volume behind Cook.

Value vs ADP+64 slots of value

Our rank

RB62

Market ADP

RB126

Projects better than the draft room is paying.

What’s driving the season rank

Case for

ADP value

RB126 ADP · +64 slots

Major

Source agreement

±4 rank σ · 2 sources

Notable

Case against

Projection rank

RB62 · proj. consensus

Notable

Neutral: Age / role

What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 backs most similar to Ray Davis, 4 finished RB1, 2 finished RB2, 1 finished RB3, 2 finished RB4+, 1 was off fantasy rosters.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast.

46%17%21%

RB146%(4)
RB217%(2)
RB310%(1)
RB4+21%(2)
Off rosters7%(1)

Year-two PPG range13.2 median

5.6p25–p75 10.1–15.515.9

10 most similar players

Chase Brown95%

2024RB12 · 15.9 PPG

Khalil Herbert88%

2023RB40 · 9.4 PPG

Rachaad White74%

2023RB2 · 15.6 PPG

Isiah Pacheco68%

2023RB6 · 15.5 PPG

Rhamondre Stevenson58%

2023RB33 · 12.1 PPG

Najee Harris54%

2023RB20 · 11.3 PPG

+4 more analogs

Our read vs. the market

Beta

Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line

Why

Solid usage productionStrong carry shareAge 26 · peak window

Our view vs Market↑ 20 pts above market

Our view

Market

Thin opportunity share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (5 flags)

Risk Flags

Usage & Volume
Davis enters 2026 as the RB3 behind rushing standout James Cook (under contract) and passing-down back Ty Johnson, with Frank Gore Jr. also in the room; his 2025 offensive role collapsed to 58 carries/275 yards and ~14-15% snaps, leaving almost no standalone touch floor.
Age Concerns
At 26, Davis is entering the typical RB value-decline window with no established workload to leverage, capping any breakout ceiling even if opportunity arrives.
Role Misfit
His primary on-field value is as a First-Team All-Pro kick returner (NFL-best 30.4 yds/return, 943 KR yards), production that earns a roster spot but does not translate to fantasy/dynasty scoring.

Opportunity Flags

Contingent Value
Davis took first-team reps in May OTAs with Cook absent and projects as the early-down lead back if Cook misses time, giving him standalone-RB2 upside in a high-powered Josh Allen offense for any multi-week stretch.
Draft Capital
Buffalo added no RB in the 2026 draft (only WR Skyler Bell in R4), so no incoming same-position capital threatens Davis's spot — his path to volume behind Cook is unobstructed.

Format Comparison

Ray Davis — Format Comparison

Format	Value	vs Best
PPR 1QBBest	1,108	—
PPR SF	932	-176

Format

Value

vs Best

PPR 1QBBest

1,108

—

PPR SF

932

-176