Quentin Johnston

Johnston finished 2025 with just 51 catches on 84 targets for 735 yards, posting nearly identical numbers to his 2024 campaign (55/711/8 TD). The volume stagnation with McConkey firmly entrenched as the WR1 and Keenan Allen likely returning limits upside.

With McConkey (value: 5185), Tre' Harris (2809), and Keenan Allen (1785) in the mix, Johnston sits as the WR3/4 on his own roster. Allen has expressed intent to return for 2026, further capping Johnston's target potential.

Johnston caught only 60.7% of targets in 2025 and ESPN notes 43% of his fantasy points came in just three games with seven single-digit outings. Production remains volatile and touchdown-dependent despite being in his third year.

New OC Mike McDaniel's offense is built on speed, separation, and YAC (Hill/Waddle archetypes), while Johnston is a big-bodied contested-catch X. His skill set is not the natural centerpiece of this scheme, raising bust risk if McDaniel favors quicker separators like McConkey and the rookie speedsters.

Ladd McConkey (5445) is the entrenched WR1 and Tre Harris (2635) is an ascending sophomore, with Brenen Thompson and KeAndre Lambert-Smith behind. Johnston is fighting for the WR2 share rather than commanding it, capping his weekly ceiling.

2025 finish of WR37 (12.6 PPG) was TD-anchored and boom/bust — last 4 games ranged from 2.8 to 20.4 points on swinging target shares (13%-26%). Drop issues persist, making him a volatile flex rather than a stable starter.

New OC Mike McDaniel's Shanahan-derived system simplifies WR reads via motion and pre-snap spacing — Johnston's size, athleticism, and YAC ability project as the natural intermediate/red zone complement to the speed threats McDaniel is building around. This is the clearest role delineation Johnston has had in his career.

McDaniel publicly targeting Herbert to play 'the best football of his career' signals a more explosive, pass-friendly system. A rising offensive tide and higher overall pass volume can lift Johnston's raw target count even within a committee.

The Chargers picked up his ~$18M fully-guaranteed 2027 fifth-year option and GM Joe Hortiz publicly killed trade rumors — a strong organizational vote of confidence that secures his role for two seasons.

New OC Mike McDaniel's YAC-and-motion scheme is a strong fit for a big athletic outside WR; analysts cite McDaniel as the catalyst that could unlock a bigger Johnston step.

The Chargers are expected to exercise Johnston's 5th-year option (~$18M) by May 1, 2026, signaling real organizational buy-in. This removes near-term contract uncertainty and incentivizes the coaching staff to deploy him in a productive role to justify the investment.

Johnston posted a career-low drop rate in 2025 (2 drops), directly addressing the primary knock on him since being drafted 21st overall in 2023. If this is a true skill improvement rather than sample noise, his target efficiency — and thus volume trust from Herbert — has real room to grow.