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Puka Nacua headshot

Puka Nacua

WR · #3

LAR · WR · Age 25

Redraft rank
WR1
▲WR1 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#3
ADP
WR1
Consensus
Tight

Puka Nacua enters the 2026 season as the reigning overall PPR WR1 with a 31% target share, making him an elite start in redraft leagues.

Role & trajectory
Nacua's role remains unchanged after the draft, with only a sixth-round rookie added to the WR corps and Davante Adams as the clear second option. His 31% target share and 0.70 WOPR indicate he is firmly entrenched in his elite volume-driven profile.
Projected outlook
At age 25, Nacua is entering the prime years of a WR's career with three consecutive top-tier seasons under his belt and no games missed despite playing through multiple injuries last year. His production ceiling remains high due to his sticky volume.
Risk & schedule
A civil lawsuit filed in March 2026 alleging antisemitic statements and biting a woman creates personal-conduct-policy tail risk, which could impact negotiations for an extension or cause off-field distractions. Additionally, the Rams' draft of QB Ty Simpson signals a transition from Matthew Stafford within one to two years, adding some uncertainty to Nacua's long-term volume.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
WR1
vs
Market ADP
WR1
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
WR1 · proj. consensus
Major
+
Source agreement
±2 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

30%60%
  • WR110%(1)
  • WR230%(3)
  • WR4+60%(6)
Next-season PPG range10.5 median
8.0p25–p75 9.2–14.016.8
10 most similar players
Stefon Diggs86%
2019·WR22 · 13.6 PPG
Dede Westbrook83%
2019·WR45 · 10.4 PPG
Jerry Jeudy79%
2023·WR52 · 8.9 PPG
CeeDee Lamb78%
2024·WR9 · 17.6 PPG
Darnell Mooney77%
2022·WR73 · 9.2 PPG
Christian Kirk76%
2020·WR56 · 10.5 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Elite usage productionElite target shareAge 25 · ascendingTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↓ 4 pts below market
Our view
94
Market
98
TD rebound upsideProducing above valueElite target share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Format Comparison

Puka Nacua — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest8,821—
PPR SF8,354-467