Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes tore his ACL/LCL on Dec. 14, 2025 and, as of late June 2026, still has not been cleared for 11-on-11 team drills — Reid held him to individual/7-on-7 work through minicamp to avoid incidental contact. The medical report is clean (no nerve, artery, or meniscal damage) and he's reportedly ahead of schedule, but the real test (full-speed cutting) doesn't happen until camp, and a PUP stint or eased early-season workload remains a live contingency for a 30-year-old coming off major knee surgery.

Over his final four healthy games he scored 5 TDs against a 2.0 expected mark (+3.0), a finishing-luck spike that's a minor regression risk on a small sample rather than a real concern given his career-long efficiency profile.

When healthy Mahomes commands a 97% snap share as the unquestioned starter in a pass-heavy scheme (+6% PROE) throwing to Rice, Worthy, and Kelce; the QB3 depth-chart listing is a procedural offseason artifact from being held out of contact drills, not a real competitive threat — Fields and Nussmeier are camp/developmental arms, and KC's lone same-position 2026 draft pick (Nussmeier, R7) doesn't threaten his role.

GM Brett Veach called Mahomes 'way ahead of schedule,' and the NFL scheduling KC-Denver as the Week 1 Monday Night game is being read around the league as a vote of confidence he starts Week 1 with no restrictions.

Lingering ACL uncertainty may be keeping his market value from fully reflecting his elite situation and positive recovery trajectory, creating a window for contenders to acquire before final camp-clearance headlines resolve the uncertainty.