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Pat Freiermuth headshot

Pat Freiermuth

TE · #33

PIT · TE · Age 27

Redraft rank
TE23
•TE23 · Flex play
Tier
T3
Overall
#162
ADP
TE23
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
TE23
vs
Market ADP
TE23
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Source agreement
±9 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Projection rank, ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-27 tight ends most similar to Pat Freiermuth's 2025 season, 3 finished TE3, 7 finished TE4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

33%67%
  • TE333%(3)
  • TE4+67%(7)
Next-season PPG range4.3 median
1.9p25–p75 2.6–5.87.4
10 most similar players
Mo Alie-Cox87%
2021·TE28 · 4.7 PPG
Jordan Akins77%
2019·TE27 · 5.6 PPG
Tyler Kroft74%
2020·TE54 · 7.0 PPG
Luke Schoonmaker72%
2025·TE60 · 1.9 PPG
Hunter Long69%
2025·TE58 · 4.6 PPG
Noah Fant69%
2024·TE28 · 7.4 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Freiermuth enters 2026 as the Steelers' clear receiving TE1 after Jonnu Smith and Connor Heyward departed, with only blocking-first Darnell Washington (expanded role) and rookie depth behind him — his late-season snap share climbed to ~68-70% and the team restructured his contract without a pay cut, signaling genuine commitment. The upside catalysts are real but modest: Mike McCarthy's new quick-game, checkdown scheme is TE-friendly, and Jonnu's vacated targets give a path to a low-teens target share. The ceiling is capped, however, by a loaded WR room (DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman, rookie Germie Bernard) and a one-year QB bridge in 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers with R3 rookie Drew Allar waiting in 2027. He's a stable, cheap TE2 (PPR TE25) rather than a breakout candidate. Recommendation: HOLD, with a low-cost buy tolerable if you can acquire him near his depressed the market TE2 floor as a cheap streaming/bridge TE — but don't pay up, and Rodgers-dependent owners should consider selling into any hot September start before the 2027 QB cliff. Timeframe: this is a one-year value play, not a long-term dynasty cornerstone.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Average usage productionAverage target shareAge 27 · peak window
Our view vs Market↑ 8 pts above market
Our view
47
Market
39

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Target Volume2

    McCarthy's offense leans 11 personnel (1 TE), and Pittsburgh stacked the WR room with DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman, and 2026 2nd-rounder Germie Bernard — Freiermuth profiles as the 3rd-4th option in the target pecking order.

  • Scheme Fit

    Freiermuth was severely underutilized in 2025 under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, finishing with career-low 54 targets and openly expressing disappointment post-season. Smith appears to have favored Jonnu Smith despite inferior production, creating significant role uncertainty even with potential new coaching staff under Mike McCarthy.

  • Target Competition2

    Darnell Washington remains on the roster and caught 31 passes in 2025; while analysts suggest McCarthy's West Coast scheme may actually favor Freiermuth's pass-catching over Washington's blocking profile, the redistribution of Jonnu Smith's 536 vacated snaps is genuinely uncertain heading into training camp.

  • Age Concerns

    At 27 with five NFL seasons and a career-best PPR rank of TE24, Freiermuth has never broken out in Pittsburgh. The window for a dynasty peak is narrowing, and continued scheme-driven target suppression makes another middling season the base case.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Scheme Fit2

    Mike Tomlin resigned and Mike McCarthy was hired as head coach with Brian Angelichio as tight end coach, which is viewed as highly favorable for Freiermuth. A new offensive system could restore his target share after his vocal dissatisfaction with the 2025 role.

  • Jonnu Smith Departure

    Multiple reports suggest Jonnu Smith is unlikely to return in 2026 after a disastrous season as the worst TE in yards per target over six years. His departure would restore Freiermuth to clear TE1 status with significantly improved target opportunity.

  • Coaching Fit

    McCarthy's West Coast offense historically features pass-catching TEs over inline blockers — a profile shift that explicitly favors Freiermuth over Washington. New OC Brian Angelichio brings a TE coaching background from Minnesota, an organization known for committing to featured tight ends in the passing game.

  • Trade Value

    PFF named Freiermuth Pittsburgh's top trade asset and multiple teams reportedly have called; landing with a QB-stable, TE-friendly offense (Chiefs and Bears cited as interested) could meaningfully unlock talent that Pittsburgh's scheme has never fully utilized.

  • Offensive Context

    The transition tag and reported team expectation of a Rodgers decision by May 18 OTAs suggests the Steelers are confident in his return. Rodgers' elite accuracy and historical TE targets (Finley, Tonyan, Wilson) represent the clearest path to Freiermuth cracking TE12 range.

Format Comparison

Pat Freiermuth — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,203—
PPR SF1,063-140