Noah Gray

Gray regressed significantly in 2025, recording his worst statistical season since his rookie year despite career-best numbers (40 receptions, 437 yards, 5 TDs) in 2024. Gray caught only 54.8% of his targets in 2025, down from an 81.6% catch rate in 2024.

Travis Kelce signed a 3-year, $54.7M extension and is committed to a 14th NFL season, directly blocking Gray's path to a featured role through at least age 28-29. Kelce led the Chiefs in targets (108), receptions (76), yards (851), and TDs (5) in 2025 — this is not a diminished player stepping aside.

Gray's 2025 season (21 catches, 178 yards, 0 TDs, PPR rank #54, 2.8 PPG) was a severe regression from his 2024 peak (40/437/5) and raises legitimate questions about whether he can function as a true TE1 even if Kelce departs — dynasty sources are openly skeptical of his standalone ceiling.

Travis Kelce confirmed returning for 2026 with $12M guaranteed, blocking Gray from meaningful target share for at least another full season. Gray's near-term fantasy relevance is entirely capped by Kelce's health.

Travis Kelce officially re-signed for a 14th season in 2026, eliminating the near-term TE1 inheritance path and capping Gray as the clear TE2 again. The succession story is pushed back at least a full year.

Gray's deal lets KC release him after June 1 for only $1.5M dead cap while freeing ~$5.5M, and multiple beat outlets list him as a prime cap casualty. A cut to an unknown landing spot is a real possibility this offseason.

If Travis Kelce, at 35 years old coming off a disappointing season, retires this offseason, Gray will be the Chiefs' de facto TE1 and his value will immediately rise.

Kelce's deal is a one-year commitment in practice — a $40M roster bonus due June 2027 that the Chiefs almost certainly won't exercise makes a post-2026 retirement the most probable outcome. Gray at 27 would inherit one of football's most coveted TE positions at peak dynasty age.

Mahomes remains steadfast that his goal is to be cleared by Week 1 2026. Return of an elite QB would restore Gray's value as a reliable target with elite efficiency.

At 36, Kelce is a meaningful in-season injury and regression risk despite his extension. Gray is the most valuable TE handcuff in the NFL — any Kelce miss-time scenario with Mahomes healthy elevates Gray to a top-12 TE with an elite supporting cast (Mahomes, Rice, Worthy) elevating his ceiling further.

Mahomes is reportedly on track for a Week 1 2026 return after his ACL surgery, which would restore the league's premier QB situation around all Chiefs pass catchers. A healthy Mahomes provides the highest possible floor for any KC skill player, including Gray in a complementary role.

A June release could actually help his fantasy outlook if he signs somewhere with a vacant TE1 role rather than sitting behind Kelce, converting him from a buried backup to a potential weekly starter.