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Nick Chubb headshot

Nick Chubb

RB · #125

FA · RB · Age 30

Redraft rank
RB108
◆RB108 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#417
ADP
RB70
Consensus
Tight

Nick Chubb's carry share fell to a career-low 18% in the second half of the season, signaling a significant decline in his role and value.

Role & trajectory
Chubb's snap share dropped from over 30% early in the season to just 29% by late 2025, indicating he is no longer a primary back.
Projected outlook
At age 30 and coming off major knee surgery, Chubb's efficiency metrics (4.1 YPC) suggest his explosiveness has been permanently diminished.
Risk & schedule
Competition from rookie Woody Marks and the Texans' decision to trade for David Montgomery highlight the risk of further reduced touches or a bench role in 2026.
Value vs ADP-38 slots (reach)
Our rank
RB108
vs
Market ADP
RB70
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
RB108 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
RB70 ADP · -38 slots
Major
−
Age / role
age 30 RB
Notable
Neutral: Source agreement
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-30 backs most similar to Nick Chubb's 2025 season, 2 finished RB1, 1 finished RB3, 3 finished RB4+, 4 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → RB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

19%31%40%
  • RB119%(2)
  • RB311%(1)
  • RB4+31%(3)
  • Missed season40%(4)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
60%hang on~7.1 PPG·40%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–8.615.0
10 most similar players
Jeremy McNichols88%
2025·RB58 · 4.5 PPG
Devontae Booker86%
2021·RB33 · 9.0 PPG
Carlos Hyde83%
2021·RB84 · 4.2 PPG
Le'Veon Bell83%
2022·Missed the season
Raheem Mostert83%
2021·Missed the season
Devonta Freeman78%
2022·Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Current statusFree Agent
Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns3

    Despite Chubb claiming he's 'over the hump' in 2025, he suffered additional injuries during the season—a rib injury that sidelined him Week 15 and reduced his touches down the stretch. This follows his severe 2023 multi-ligament knee injury and demonstrates continued fragility.

  • Usage & Volume

    Chubb opened 2025 as the lead back with double-digit carries in six of Houston's first eight games, but rookie Woody Marks emerged as the primary option. By late season, Chubb was getting minimal work—averaging just 4.4 carries over the final seven weeks, with several games yielding one carry or less.

  • Athletic Profile

    Post-injury, Chubb's production metrics and eye-test show he has not fully reclaimed his burst or cutting ability. His 3.3 YPC in 2024 and 4.15 YPC in 2025 reflect significant decline from his pre-injury 4.5+ YPC standards.

  • Contract Situation

    Chubb finished 2025 as an unrestricted free agent heading into the offseason. The Texans are expected to reassess their backfield, and there's minimal indication Houston will retain him, creating uncertainty about role and landing spot.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Houston Scheme

    The Texans' offensive system under Jeff Pastnak values ground game efficiency. If Chubb is healthy, he could find consistent work in a run-first scheme that maximizes his remaining value.

  • Free Agency Destination

    If Chubb lands with a run-first team lacking a proven lead back, he could reclaim goal-line and short-yardage roles. However, at 30+ years old and with limited market interest likely, realistic destination options appear limited.

  • Playoff Depth Floor

    Chubb showed he could contribute in limited capacity during the 2025 playoffs, delivering utility as an injury backup and goal-line option. In PPR formats, his receiving floor provides some safety value for contending teams.

  • Veteran Backup Floor

    If Chubb signs with a team needing veteran depth, he could provide minimal fantasy value as a goal-line vulture or injury replacement. His 112-yard playoff performance against Pittsburgh shows he still has occasional utility.

  • Browns Reunion Speculation

    Some media outlets have speculated about a Cleveland reunion given their RB uncertainty, but this appears unlikely given Chubb's diminished capabilities and the Browns' need for an upgrade at the position.

  • Veteran Floor

    A contender managing RB depth could sign Chubb at the veteran minimum before training camp. His pass protection, track record, and character give him roster value even without meaningful fantasy upside.

Format Comparison

Nick Chubb — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest217—
PPR SF182-35