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Mike Gesicki headshot

Mike Gesicki

TE · #47

CIN · TE · Age 30

Redraft rank
TE29
▲TE29 · Flex play+58 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T3
Overall
#182
ADP
TE87
Consensus
Some split

Mike Gesicki's stable but limited target share (5%) in a high-volume offense caps his ceiling as a low-end TE2/streamer, despite re-signing with Cincinnati and playing alongside Joe Burrow.

Role & trajectory
Gesicki returns as the primary receiving tight end for Cincinnati but faces competition from younger options like Drew Sample and Erick All, who could eat into his already thin volume.
Projected outlook
With a 5% target share and a snap share trending downward, Gesicki projects as a low-ceiling committee piece in an elite passing offense, offering marginal upside for streaming weeks but limited long-term value.
Risk & schedule
At 30 years old, Gesicki's advanced age and injury history increase the risk of soft-tissue injuries and reduced performance, while a potential rookie draft pick could further diminish his role in Cincinnati.
Value vs ADP+58 slots of value
Our rank
TE29
vs
Market ADP
TE87
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
TE87 ADP · +58 slots
Major
+
Source agreement
±6 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
Neutral: Projection rank, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-30 tight ends most similar to Mike Gesicki's 2025 season, 3 finished TE2, 4 finished TE4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

28%42%30%
  • TE228%(3)
  • TE4+42%(4)
  • Missed season30%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
70%hang on~4.7 PPG·30%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–6.89.3
10 most similar players
Mo Alie-Cox90%
2022·TE45 · 3.9 PPG
Tyler Eifert82%
2021·Missed the season
Austin Hooper65%
2025·TE43 · 4.0 PPG
Darren Waller65%
2023·TE22 · 9.4 PPG
Blake Bell58%
2021·TE72 · 1.7 PPG
Taysom Hill58%
2019·TE16 · 7.0 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Average usage productionSolid target shareAge 30 · window closingTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↑ 45 pts above market
Our view
49
Market
4
Age-curve risk

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Target Volume2

    With Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins consuming the majority of Burrow's targets, Gesicki is capped at a 5% target share — yielding a PPR rank of #41 and just 5.9 PPG. This is a structural ceiling, not a correctable usage issue.

  • Age And Decline

    At 30.3 years old, Gesicki is entering the steep decline phase for tight ends. His athletic profile suggests limited runway for sustained production at this stage of his career.

  • Age Concerns

    At 30.3 years old, Gesicki is entering the steep decline phase for tight ends with limited runway remaining. Durability has been a strength historically, but injury risk increases significantly at this stage.

  • Usage & Volume

    Game logs confirm a stagnant 5% target share and snap share falling to 38%, with a #41 PPR finish on 5.9 PPG — a committee receiving TE with a low ceiling even in a great offense.

  • 2025 Production Decline

    Despite re-signing for $25.5M in March 2025, Gesicki's 2025 production dropped significantly from his 65-catch 2024 season. Early-season injuries and Joe Burrow's absence (8-game injury) limited his output, signaling vulnerability in the role.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Burrow Partnership

    Gesicki's pairing with Pro Bowl quarterback Joe Burrow revived his career with 65 catches in 2024, becoming a key element in Cincinnati's No. 1 NFL passing offense. With Burrow healthy in 2026, target volume could stabilize.

  • Three Year Security

    The Bengals re-signed Gesicki on a three-year deal after he posted the most catches by a Cincinnati tight end in 43 years, indicating organizational commitment and primary role security through 2026 at minimum.

  • Late Season Upside

    Gesicki peaked late with position-best marks in targets (22), catches (18), receiving yards (154) and fantasy points (33.4) during Weeks 17 and 18, suggesting potential for strong finish-line value in 2026 if healthy.

  • QB Connection

    Joe Burrow targeted Gesicki heavily when healthy in 2024 (65 catches) and praised his performance. With Burrow returning to full health for 2026 after missing 9 games in 2025 due to turf toe surgery, the passing volume could stabilize if Gesicki retains his role.

  • Target Competition

    Noah Fant's offseason departure removes the primary TE2 who was splitting snaps, giving Gesicki a cleaner path to sustained TE1 usage in 2026 and a modest bump in snap share if no drafted replacement emerges early.

  • Offensive Context

    Joe Burrow is one of the NFL's most accurate passers, and tight ends in precision passing schemes benefit from high-percentage targets that inflate PPR floor. Gesicki's 12.5-pt W16 illustrates the upside when targeted.

Format Comparison

Mike Gesicki — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest677—
PPR SF601-76