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Michael Wilson headshot

Michael Wilson

WR · #37

ARI · WR · Age 26

◆FLEX

Michael Wilson's recent production, with a target share as high as 28.9% in his last four games, signals he is more than just a replacement-level WR.

Role & volume
Wilson has maintained a consistent snap share of around 87.5%, indicating he remains a key part of the Arizona Cardinals' offense.
Projected role
Despite his recent injury status and coaching change, Wilson's value rank as WR42 suggests he is expected to continue in a prominent receiving role for the team.
Range (floor–ceiling)
Wilson's floor appears to be around 13.2 PPR points based on his lowest output from the last four games, while his ceiling remains at around 20.9 PPR points, reflecting a consistent but not elite range of performance.
Intel may be outdated · updated 5 days ago
Current statusARI
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Strong usage productionStrong target shareAge 26 · ascendingTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↑ 6 pts above market
Our view
78
Market
72
Elite target shareLong career runwayProducing above value

Our own read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (3 flags)

Risk Flags

1
  • Target Volume

    Wilson's 2025 splits show a sharp target-share drop in games where Marvin Harrison Jr. played a full healthy complement of snaps versus a much larger role when Harrison was limited or sidelined. With Harrison entering 2026 as an established, healthy WR1, that pattern is the clearest path to target-share compression for Wilson.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • Scheme Fit

    Playcaller Mike LaFleur built the passing game's early-down volume around Wilson in a Puka Nacua-style role, inside an offense running roughly 8 points over expected pass rate — a scheme and environment that inflate his target opportunity independent of raw target share.

  • Contract Situation

    Wilson signed a multi-year extension with Arizona in 2026, resolving the free-agency uncertainty that previously clouded his long-term outlook and locking him into the passing game's plans.

Format Comparison

Michael Wilson — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,632—
PPR SF2,177-455