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Michael Wilson headshot

Michael Wilson

WR · #38

ARI · WR · Age 26

Redraft rank
WR40
•WR40 · Depth
Tier
T3
Overall
#119
ADP
WR37
Consensus
Coin flip

Michael Wilson's validated WR14 breakout (78/1,006/7) with late-season elite usage (29% target share, 93% snaps) proves a locked-in every-down perimeter role.

Role & trajectory
Wilson enters the season as Arizona's established WR2 coming off his breakout year, but faces real touch-share risk from ascending alpha Marvin Harrison Jr. and scheme uncertainty under new HC Mike LaFleur.
Projected outlook
Despite role risks, Wilson's strong floor is rare for a Tier 4 dynasty asset, making him a reliable WR2/3 producer with upside as MHJ injury insurance or if the new offense spreads targets.
Risk & schedule
The coaching change introduces real role and target-distribution uncertainty until proven; fully healthy MHJ caps Wilson's ceiling, while an unsigned contract year adds mild long-term roster uncertainty.
Value vs ADP-3 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR40
vs
Market ADP
WR37
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR40 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
WR37 ADP · -3 slots
Minor
−
Source agreement
±13 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-26 receivers most similar to Michael Wilson's 2025 season, 4 finished WR1, 1 finished WR3, 4 finished WR4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → WR1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

40%40%
  • WR140%(4)
  • WR311%(1)
  • WR4+40%(4)
  • Missed season10%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range12.9 median
4.5p25–p75 8.9–15.919.3
10 most similar players
DK Metcalf94%
2024·WR35 · 12.8 PPG
Darius Slayton88%
2023·WR47 · 8.9 PPG
Kenny Golladay87%
2020·WR105 · 13.2 PPG
Brandon Aiyuk87%
2024·WR106 · 8.9 PPG
Davante Adams87%
2019·WR7 · 19.4 PPG
Adam Thielen87%
2018·WR7 · 19.2 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Strong usage productionStrong target shareAge 26 · ascendingTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↑ 6 pts above market
Our view
78
Market
72
Elite target shareLong career runwayProducing above value

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (6 flags)

Risk Flags

4
  • Scheme Continuity

    Arizona overhauled its staff for 2026 — Mike LaFleur replaces Jonathan Gannon as HC with Nathaniel Hackett taking over play-calling/OC duties and Tony Sorrentino at WR coach, removing the Petzing/Terrell room that fostered Wilson's 2025 breakout. A new scheme introduces real role and target-distribution uncertainty until the system is proven.

  • Target Volume

    Marvin Harrison Jr. is the ascending alpha and projects as the clear WR1, capping Wilson's ceiling as the perimeter WR2. A fully healthy MHJ compresses Wilson's target share even with his sticky 29% late-season usage.

  • QB Dependency

    The QB room of journeyman Jacoby Brissett and rookie Carson Beck lacks a proven high-end starter, capping passing-game efficiency and Wilson's per-target value. His production is tethered to whichever QB wins the job and how quickly the new offense gels.

  • Contract Situation

    Wilson enters the final year of his rookie deal ($3.92M) and reaches free agency in 2027; he's an extension candidate but the situation is unresolved. He's publicly downplayed it, but an unsigned contract year adds mild long-term roster uncertainty.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • Elite Production

    Wilson validated a WR14 breakout (78/1,006/7, #14 PPR) with elite, sticky usage — 29% target share and 93% snaps over the final stretch — proving a locked-in every-down perimeter role. That floor is rare for a Tier 4 dynasty asset and makes him a reliable WR2/3 producer.

  • Usage & Volume

    Wilson is the clear next man up for WR1 volume if Marvin Harrison Jr. misses time, a path that previously produced 1,000-yard production. Any MHJ absence or a Hackett scheme that spreads targets would push Wilson toward weekly WR1 ceiling outcomes.

Format Comparison

Michael Wilson — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,614—
PPR SF2,197-417