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Michael Pittman headshot

Michael Pittman

WR · #49

PIT · WR · Age 28

Redraft rank
WR44
•WR44 · Depth
Tier
T3
Overall
#118
ADP
—
Consensus
Tight

Michael Pittman's role as a WR1 on his new team, Pittsburgh, positions him for consistent production despite recent target share fluctuations.

Role & trajectory
Pittman's baseline stats from Indianapolis show he was a high-volume receiver with a 23.9% target share and 22.9% air yards share, indicating WR1 potential.
Rest-of-season outlook
With recent depth chart moves solidifying Pittman's WR1 status on Pittsburgh, his role is likely to stabilize or improve, supporting a consistent starter profile.
Risk & schedule
While there are no specific injury concerns noted, the risk lies in potential competition for targets and any further fluctuations in snap share, though these appear minimal thus far.
Value vs ADP

No redraft ADP yet — too early in draft season, or outside ADP coverage.

What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR44 · proj. consensus
Notable
Neutral: ADP value, Source agreement, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-28 receivers most similar to Michael Pittman's 2025 season, 2 finished WR1, 1 finished WR2, 2 finished WR3, 5 finished WR4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

21%18%52%
  • WR121%(2)
  • WR29%(1)
  • WR318%(2)
  • WR4+52%(5)
Next-season PPG range11.1 median
8.2p25–p75 9.8–15.118.8
10 most similar players
Demarcus Robinson91%
2023·WR77 · 10.5 PPG
Jarvis Landry89%
2021·WR57 · 11.1 PPG
Keenan Allen88%
2021·WR12 · 16.1 PPG
DeVante Parker85%
2021·WR72 · 11.5 PPG
Davante Adams77%
2021·WR5 · 21.3 PPG
Allen Robinson72%
2021·WR84 · 7.2 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Solid usage productionStrong target shareAge 28 · veteran
Our view vs Market↑ 5 pts above market
Our view
67
Market
62
Elite target share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Age Concerns2

    At 28.3 years old entering his sixth NFL season, Pittman is in the decline phase typical for WRs. Both Pittman and head coach Shane Steichen are on the hot seat, creating organizational uncertainty.

  • QB Volatility

    After not starting a single game in 2025, it seems likely the Colts will decline Anthony Richardson's fifth-year option and trade him. Daniel Jones, currently the likely starter, is recovering from a torn Achilles and may not be fully healthy by summer, creating QB uncertainty going forward.

  • Landing Spot

    Pittman was traded to Pittsburgh in March 2026 and signed a 3-year, $59M extension. Pittsburgh is historically one of the NFL's lowest-volume passing offenses, materially capping his target ceiling compared to his Colts role.

  • QB Dependency

    Aaron Rodgers (42) has stated 2026 is his final NFL season, leaving Pittman tied to an unresolved succession of Mason Rudolph/Drew Allar in 2027 — Allar is viewed as a project/practice-squad QB at best, threatening passing-game volume the year after.

  • Role Erosion

    Pittman finished the 2025 season with only 76 receptions for 757 yards through 15 games, ranking third in receiving yards behind Warren and Pierce. His target share has declined with the run-heavy offense and multiple TE sets featuring Warren.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Scheme Fit

    Mike McCarthy's spread-passing system is a massive upgrade over Arthur Smith's TE-heavy offense; Pittsburgh's stated intent to increase WR usage means Pittman's per-game opportunity floor is meaningfully higher than anything he saw in Indianapolis.

  • QB Dependency

    If Aaron Rodgers returns, Pittman gains access to an elite QB for the first time in his career — the Colts cycled through Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, and similar stopgaps, and even modest efficiency gains from Rodgers could unlock a career-best year at 28.

  • Usage & Volume2

    In 2022, Pittman's 97% snap share led the entire league, and his 92% share in 2023 was tied with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson for third. As a split end, he naturally plays large snap share unless the team runs multiple TE sets.

  • Injury Concerns

    Pittman played through a back fracture for all of 2024 without surgery and participated fully in 2025 OTAs/minicamp. His 2025 bounce-back (career-high 7 TDs through 15 games) suggests he's healthier, though overall volume remains depressed.

  • Contract Situation

    Pittman signed a 3-year, $59M extension in March 2026, locking in a guaranteed starting WR2 role and snap-share security through the contract window — no risk of being phased out near-term.

Format Comparison

Michael Pittman — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest2,611—
PPR SF1,983-628