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Michael Mayer headshot

Michael Mayer

TE · #37

LV · TE · Age 25

Redraft rank
TE36
▲TE36 · Flex play+47 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T3
Overall
#225
ADP
TE83
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP+47 slots of value
Our rank
TE36
vs
Market ADP
TE83
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
TE83 ADP · +47 slots
Major
Case against
−
Source agreement
±21 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Projection rank, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-24 tight ends most similar to Michael Mayer's 2025 season, 3 finished TE1, 2 finished TE2, 5 finished TE4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

31%19%50%
  • TE131%(3)
  • TE219%(2)
  • TE4+50%(5)
Next-season PPG range5.7 median
2.5p25–p75 3.4–9.810.6
10 most similar players
Pat Freiermuth87%
2022·TE11 · 9.9 PPG
Drew Sample85%
2021·TE70 · 2.3 PPG
Tucker Kraft78%
2024·TE10 · 9.6 PPG
Brock Wright78%
2023·TE61 · 3.6 PPG
Brenton Strange75%
2025·TE23 · 9.3 PPG
Will Dissly71%
2023·TE52 · 3.4 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Michael Mayer enters 2026 as the entrenched TE2 behind elite teammate Brock Bowers in Las Vegas, but his surrounding situation is the best of his career: Kirk Cousins (a proven TE-friendly QB reuniting with OC Klint Kubiak) replaces Geno Smith, and Kubiak's two-TE-heavy scheme gives Mayer a defined role. The structured data confirms a low-end TE profile (TE #39, 5.7 PPG) with a genuine volume cap, though his 95% snaps and a 36%-target Week 17 spike show real contingency upside if Bowers misses time. The key dynasty catalyst is his expiring rookie contract — a productive walk year could earn him a larger role elsewhere in 2027 free agency, which is the only realistic path to a meaningful value jump. He is a speculative HOLD for contenders who want the elite Bowers handcuff, and a low-cost BUY in TE-premium leagues betting on a 2027 role change; otherwise his ceiling stays capped behind Bowers. Timeframe: revisit at the 2027 free agency / re-sign decision.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Buy-low — we see clear value above the market price
Why
Average usage productionSolid target shareAge 25 · ascendingTDs due to regress
  • ▲Dynasty age curve
  • ▲Draft-capital pedigree
  • ▲Expected fantasy points
Our view vs Market↑ 39 pts above market
Our view
74
Market
35
Long career runwayTD regression riskHigh draft pedigree

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Elite Teammate Competition

    Brock Bowers is a bonafide superstar TE who captured massive target share as a rookie. Mayer operates as second-fiddle to a generational talent, severely limiting ceiling.

  • Trade Block Uncertainty

    Mayer was actively shopped in early offseason but no trade materialized. As new regime's non-draft pick, he faces job security pressure entering his 'money year' with limited leverage.

  • Bowers Dominance

    Brock Bowers is a generational talent who posted a historic rookie season (112-1194-5 in 2024) and remains the unquestioned alpha TE. Mayer's role is capped as long as Bowers is healthy and productive.

  • Target Competition

    Brock Bowers is one of the most dominant TEs in the NFL and will command the overwhelming majority of TE targets in Las Vegas. Even in Kubiak's 12-personnel scheme, Mayer's ceiling as Bowers' supporting cast is a 40-50 catch, 400-yard season at best.

  • Elite Teammate

    Brock Bowers is the unambiguous target focal point of Las Vegas's passing attack. When healthy, Bowers suppresses Mayer to a blocking-first secondary role with minimal standalone PPR relevance regardless of scheme.

  • Target Volume

    Mayer is the clear TE2 behind elite Brock Bowers, who commands the lion's share of Las Vegas TE targets. His 19% target share and 5.7 PPG (TE #39) reflect a hard volume cap that limits weekly fantasy relevance as long as Bowers is healthy.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Scheme Fit2

    New HC Klint Kubiak consistently deploys heavy 12-personnel (2-TE sets) throughout his career as OC in Minnesota, Seattle, and New Orleans. Mayer is specifically noted as the inline TE complement to Bowers, giving him a structural role he has never had before — this is the most meaningful scheme upgrade of his career.

  • Target Expansion

    If Waller is traded/released or Mayer earns more snaps, significant target share growth is available; talented pass-catching TEs in this era command heavy volume.

  • Role Expansion Catalyst

    If offensive coordinator Kubiak (architect of athletic TE usage) increases 2-TE sets or if Mayer earns passing-down snaps, significant target ceiling unlocked. Elite athletic tools align with modern NFL trends.

  • Age Window Peak

    At 24.6 years, Mayer is entering his physical prime (TE peak ages 25-29). NFL favoritism toward athletic TE playmakers means his skill set should translate well as role expands beyond Bowers competition.

  • Roster Opportunity

    The Raiders are actively shopping Mayer to Carolina (Bryce Young needs receiving help) and Baltimore (Isaiah Likely departure). Either destination transforms him from a ceiling-capped TE2 into a featured starting TE — an immediate and dramatic value spike.

Format Comparison

Michael Mayer — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,066—
PPR SF963-103