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Michael Mayer headshot

Michael Mayer

TE · #30

LV · TE · Age 25

▼SIT

Michael Mayer's recent trend in transactions suggests a significant drop in ownership, indicating diminishing confidence among owners despite his strong PPR performance.

Matchup
This week's matchup does not provide any standout advantage or disadvantage for Mayer, as the Vegas odds do not highlight a specific game environment that would elevate his floor or ceiling.
Role & volume
With teammate Brock Bowers returning to active status, Mayer's target share is now contested at 24.1%, which was previously elevated due to Bowers' absence. This suggests a potential reduction in Mayer's weekly production as targets are redistributed.
Range (floor–ceiling)
Given the recent trend of Mayer being dropped and his current value rank at TE35, his floor and ceiling for this week appear to be relatively narrow, making him a risky play compared to more stable options in deeper formats.
Intel may be outdated · updated 47 days ago
Current statusLV
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Buy-low — we see clear value above the market price
Why
Average usage productionSolid target shareAge 25 · ascendingTDs due to regress
  • ▲Dynasty age curve
  • ▲Draft-capital pedigree
  • ▲Expected fantasy points
Our view vs Market↑ 39 pts above market
Our view
74
Market
35
Long career runwayTD regression riskHigh draft pedigree

Our own read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Target Competition

    Brock Bowers remains the entrenched lead tight end in this offense, and once he's back to full health his target share caps Mayer's ceiling to a complementary TE2 role even within a two-tight-end scheme.

  • Usage & Volume

    Game-to-game output has swung from a shutout on limited snaps to a multi-catch effort within the same short stretch, showing the role is still tied to Bowers's availability rather than a fixed independent target share.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • Usage & Volume

    Target share and snap share both trended upward through the end of 2025, with the final two games showing a real complementary role rather than a pure afterthought behind Bowers.

  • Contract Situation

    A three-year extension with substantial guarantees signals the Raiders view Mayer as a long-term complementary piece alongside Bowers, reducing snap-share risk from roster churn.

Format Comparison

Michael Mayer — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,257—
PPR SF1,173-84