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Michael Carter headshot

Michael Carter

RB · #110

PHI · RB · Age 27

Redraft rank
RB113
◆RB113 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#564
ADP
RB90
Consensus
Tight

Michael Carter's recent signing with the Tennessee Titans does not secure him a significant role, as he profiles as the fourth or fifth running back behind established players like Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears.

Role & trajectory
Carter's carry share of 25.1% with Arizona last season was driven by injuries to teammates, not a defined starting role. On his new team, he faces stiff competition from Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, who are both ahead of him on the depth chart.
Projected outlook
Carter's 2025 season was largely injury-driven, with a declining snap share in Arizona. His role is further diminished by the addition of Nicholas Singleton and other camp bodies to the Titans' backfield.
Risk & schedule
With multiple competitors ahead of him on the depth chart, Carter's path to consistent touches is narrow. He lacks a clear opportunity for significant volume without injuries to Pollard or Spears, making his role highly speculative.
Value vs ADP-23 slots (reach)
Our rank
RB113
vs
Market ADP
RB90
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
RB113 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
RB90 ADP · -23 slots
Major
Neutral: Source agreement, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-26 backs most similar to Michael Carter's 2025 season, 1 finished RB1, 9 finished RB4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span RB4+ → RB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

90%
  • RB110%(1)
  • RB4+90%(9)
Next-season PPG range5.1 median
3.5p25–p75 4.0–8.916.1
10 most similar players
Kenneth Gainwell88%
2024·RB56 · 3.6 PPG
Boston Scott88%
2021·RB49 · 10.9 PPG
Kenyan Drake87%
2022·RB46 · 8.7 PPG
Kyle Juszczyk86%
2018·RB67 · 4.5 PPG
Christian McCaffrey85%
2022·RB1 · 20.8 PPG
Rex Burkhead83%
2018·RB55 · 8.1 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Buy-low — we see clear value above the market price
Why
Average usage productionAverage carry shareAge 27 · peak windowTDs due to regress
  • ▲Expected fantasy points
  • ▲Touchdown-luck regression
  • ▲Dynasty age curve
Our view vs Market↑ 59 pts above market
Our view
62
Market
3
TD regression risk

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (10 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Age And Decline

    At 26 with a 2025 season of 3.3 YPC efficiency on 67 carries, Carter is entering the typical RB decline window with worsening efficiency metrics rather than improvement trajectory.

  • Backfield Competition

    Trey Benson (value, elite prospect) and James Conner are both ahead on depth chart once healthy. Bam Knight also competes for volume. Carter lacks a clear path to consistent role.

  • Contract Situation

    Carter left Arizona in free agency and signed with the Tennessee Titans (April 1, 2026), his third team in three years. This pattern of short-term contracts signals organizational non-commitment; his role and path to snaps in Tennessee is undefined at this stage.

  • Depth Chart

    His 2025 ARI production (PPR #48, 7.6 PPG) was almost entirely opportunity-driven by injuries to Benson, Conner, and Knight — not a designed starting role. There is no clear path to a true lead-back designation on any current roster.

  • Backfield Role

    Carter is the #3 RB on Tennessee behind Tony Pollard (1,000+ rushing yards last season) and Tyjae Spears, with Kalel Mullings and 2026 rookie Nicholas Singleton also crowding the room. There is no plausible path to starter-level volume without two injuries in front of him.

  • Team Investment

    Carter is on his third team in three years (Jets → Cardinals → Titans), a clear organizational signal about his ceiling. Tennessee signed him as depth insurance, not a featured option, and dynasty sites reflect this: Dynasty Nerds rates him RB160 with a value of 0.

Opportunity Flags

4
  • Injury Concerns

    If Conner or Benson miss extended time, Carter could see 10-15 touch games as demonstrated late 2025 season. Short-term lineup value exists in injury-ravaged backfield.

  • Scheme Fit2

    New HC Mike LaFleur's offense (successful with pass-catchers under McVay) may highlight Carter's 40+ target ceiling as a receiving back in up-tempo concepts.

  • Target Volume

    His 11% target share held stable throughout the back half of 2025, suggesting he retains value as a passing-down specialist even without a defined carry role. PPR formats give him a modest floor as a third-down back.

Format Comparison

Michael Carter — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest453—
PPR SF365-88