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Marquise Brown headshot

Marquise Brown

WR · #118

PHI · WR · Age 29

Redraft rank
WR112
◆WR112 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#259
ADP
WR48
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADP-64 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR112
vs
Market ADP
WR48
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR112 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
WR48 ADP · -64 slots
Major
Neutral: Source agreement, Age / role
What similar players becameHigh confidence

Of the 10 age-28 receivers most similar to Marquise Brown's 2025 season, 9 finished WR4+, 1 missed the season.

Veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

90%
  • WR4+90%(9)
  • Missed season10%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range5.1 median
1.7p25–p75 4.6–8.68.8
10 most similar players
Allen Robinson99%
2022·WR87 · 8.5 PPG
DeVante Parker97%
2022·WR71 · 8.6 PPG
Chris Conley93%
2021·WR113 · 4.6 PPG
Rashard Higgins90%
2022·Missed the season
Sammy Watkins88%
2022·WR118 · 4.9 PPG
Jakeem Grant Sr.87%
2021·WR133 · 5.4 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

The structured-data team tag is stale — Marquise Brown left the Chiefs and signed a 1-year deal with Philadelphia in March 2026, and the offseason has only worsened his outlook. The Eagles have now officially traded A.J. Brown to the Patriots, but rather than handing the vacated targets to Brown, they drafted USC slot WR Makai Lemon in Round 1 and acquired Dontayvion Wicks, who is projected as the WR2 entering minicamp. That leaves Brown as roughly the third or fourth option behind DeVonta Smith (clear WR1), Wicks, and Lemon — valued mainly as the best deep-ball threat outside Smith in an elite Hurts/Barkley offense. As a 28-year-old, injury-prone, impending-2027 free agent, his dynasty profile is a low-tier, win-now-only dart throw with little appreciation upside. Recommendation: SELL-LOW into any preseason volume hype or roster-clogging-startup-only HOLD; he is not a hold-for-value asset and should be moved for a late pick or cut in deeper dynasty formats over the next 1-2 months.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Slight buy-low — we value him a bit above the marketSlight
Why
Average usage productionAverage target shareAge 29 · window closing
  • ▲Draft-capital pedigree
  • ▲Expected fantasy points
Our view vs Market↑ 16 pts above market
Our view
50
Market
34
Age-curve riskHigh draft pedigree

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Contract Situation2

    Brown is on a 1-year rental deal at age 28 with Makai Lemon already identified as Philadelphia's long-term WR investment. His dynasty value is entirely 2026-dependent with no roster security or contract leverage beyond this season.

  • Free Agency Uncertainty

    Brown heads to free agency after one year; Chiefs have limited cap space and may not retain him given 6-11 season and crowded WR room with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy ahead of him.

  • Injury Concerns

    Brown has missed substantial time in multiple recent seasons; durability concerns compound declining age and limited target opportunities for a 28-year-old entering free agency.

  • Diminished Role

    Brown saw his role significantly compress in 2025, with 4 or fewer targets in 7 straight games and snap shares between 33-44% once Rashee Rice returned. He was clearly the WR3 behind Rice and Xavier Worthy in Kansas City's pecking order.

  • Target Competition

    Even with A.J. Brown traded to New England, Philadelphia's room is crowded: DeVonta Smith is the clear WR1, Dontayvion Wicks is projected WR2 entering minicamp, and 2026 first-round rookie Makai Lemon profiles as the long-term ascending piece. Brown is fighting for the outside/deep-threat snaps as a fourth option.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Elite QB Situation2

    Playing with Patrick Mahomes in a high-powered KC offense provides consistent volume and efficiency. The system elevates skill players and provides path to sustained production.

  • Trade Catalyst

    Active A.J. Brown trade rumors are circulating heading into the NFL Draft; a post-June 1 deal (reducing Philly's cap hit to under $20M) would instantly elevate Hollywood to WR2 opposite DeVonta Smith with Jalen Hurts — a massive target-share and dynasty value upgrade.

  • Role Expansion

    Adam Schefter has stated he expects an A.J. Brown trade to the New England Patriots to close around June 1. If completed, Brown becomes the nominal WR2 in a Jalen Hurts offense — creating a short-term value spike that dynasty managers should treat as a sell-high window rather than a buy signal.

  • Landing Spot

    Multiple teams could target Brown as an affordable veteran complementary piece, including Pittsburgh (reuniting with cousin Antonio Brown's legacy), Giants (reuniting with Matt Nagy), or other WR-needy teams seeking slot/depth help. A better target share situation could unlock slightly more fantasy upside.

  • Volume Upside

    If A.J. Brown is traded, his 120+ annual target vacuumed would redistribute primarily to Brown and DeVonta Smith, potentially pushing Hollywood into 90+ target territory for the first time since his Arizona peak.

Format Comparison

Marquise Brown — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,166—
PPR SF948-218