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Mark Andrews headshot

Mark Andrews

TE · #18

BAL · TE · Age 30

Redraft rank
TE12
•TE12 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#138
ADP
TE11
Consensus
Some split

Mark Andrews is a reliable starter with consistent target share, despite recent snap share decline.

Role & trajectory
Andrews maintains a significant role as the primary TE option for Baltimore, with a rising target share to 17.6%.
Rest-of-season outlook
With a WOPR of 0.374 and air yards share at 15.6%, Andrews is expected to maintain his production as a top-20 TE option.
Risk & schedule
The slight drop in snap share is concerning, but without recent events impacting performance, the risk remains low for Andrews to continue as a starter.
Value vs ADP-1 slots (reach)
Our rank
TE12
vs
Market ADP
TE11
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
TE12 · proj. consensus
Notable
+
Source agreement
±8 rank σ · 2 sources
Minor
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 8 age-30 tight ends most similar to Mark Andrews's 2025 season, 3 finished TE1, 1 finished TE2, 1 finished TE3, 1 finished TE4+, 2 missed the season.

Based on just 8 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → TE1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

36%27%
  • TE136%(3)
  • TE213%(1)
  • TE312%(1)
  • TE4+12%(1)
  • Missed season27%(2)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
73%hang on~7.9 PPG·27%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 1.3–10.218.0
8 most similar players
Jared Cook66%
2018·Missed the season
Jimmy Graham63%
2018·TE11 · 8.2 PPG
Darren Waller61%
2024·Missed the season
Tyler Conklin59%
2024·TE20 · 7.6 PPG
Jonnu Smith58%
2025·TE35 · 4.8 PPG
Mike Gesicki54%
2025·TE41 · 5.9 PPG

+2 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Solid usage productionStrong target shareAge 30 · window closing
Our view vs Market↓ 8 pts below market
Our view
63
Market
71
Age-curve riskElite target share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

2
  • Age & Decline

    Andrews turns 30 with clear statistical decline in 2025 (48/422/5, 7.7 PPG, TE #18 PPR) and a falling target share (18% over the last four games). TE values erode fast past 30, and his dynasty trade value sits in Tier 5 with limited recovery runway.

  • Target Volume

    Even as the unquestioned TE1, his target share dropped to 18% inside a crowded pass-catching corps led by Zay Flowers plus emerging WRs (Sarratt, Lane, Bateman). Volume is being squeezed toward the perimeter even with snaps up to 59%.

Opportunity Flags

2
  • Role Security

    Isaiah Likely (NYG, 3yr/$40M) and Charlie Kolar both departed, leaving Andrews the clear, contract-secured TE1 through 2027 after his Dec 2025 extension. Rookie additions Matt Hibner (R4) and Josh Cuevas (R5) are late-round depth, not near-term threats, preserving his path to vacated TE volume.

  • QB Stability

    Andrews remains Lamar Jackson's longtime red-zone security blanket, which props up his touchdown floor and offers a usable veteran-TE outcome if new OC Declan Doyle re-emphasizes the position.

Format Comparison

Mark Andrews — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,751—
PPR SF1,540-211