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Marcus Mariota headshot

Marcus Mariota

QB · #53

WAS · QB · Age 32

Redraft rank
QB46
▲QB46 · Depth+19 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T4
Overall
#424
ADP
QB65
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP+19 slots of value
Our rank
QB46
vs
Market ADP
QB65
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
QB65 ADP · +19 slots
Major
Case against
−
Projection rank
QB46 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
Source agreement
±61 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-32 quarterbacks most similar to Marcus Mariota's 2025 season, 2 finished QB1, 1 finished QB2, 2 finished QB3, 1 finished QB4+, 4 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

20%17%42%
  • QB120%(2)
  • QB212%(1)
  • QB317%(2)
  • QB4+9%(1)
  • Missed season42%(4)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
58%hang on~17.1 PPG·42%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–20.422.5
10 most similar players
Cam Newton98%
2022·Missed the season
Derek Carr91%
2022·QB18 · 14.6 PPG
Ryan Tannehill86%
2020·QB9 · 21.0 PPG
Jameis Winston78%
2025·Missed the season
Josh Johnson69%
2019·Missed the season
Tyrod Taylor67%
2022·Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Mariota returns to Washington on his third consecutive one-year deal ($7M, up to $11M incentives) as Jayden Daniels' backup and mentor — a clipboard role with no standalone dynasty value. His only 2025 relevance (8 starts, #31 PPR over 10 games) came because Daniels missed 10 games with knee, hamstring, and a recurrent elbow dislocation; Daniels now reports full health and spent the offseason adding durability under new OC David Blough, which directly shrinks Mariota's snap path. At 32 with no long-term contract, there is zero appreciation runway and a credible chance he's out of the league after 2026. His 1686 value is a stale artifact of last year's injury-driven starts and will compress as a healthy Daniels is confirmed. Recommendation: SELL now in superflex/2QB leagues to any manager still pricing the 2025 starts, or HOLD only as a deep one-week injury contingency — there is no scenario where waiting increases his value.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Age Concerns

    At 32.2 years old, Mariota is well into his decline phase. Most backups at this age have minimal remaining NFL value, with typically 1-2 years of relevance left before becoming unplayable.

  • Franchise Dependency

    Mariota's entire remaining value depends on Jayden Daniels' durability. Daniels suffered three separate injuries in 2025 and is durability-challenged, but any season where Daniels stays healthy eliminates Mariota's starting opportunities.

  • Free Agency Uncertainty

    Mariota is an unrestricted free agent in March 2026 after his 1-year, $8M contract expired. Multiple teams including the Jets, Chiefs, and other QB-needy franchises could pursue him, potentially removing him from Washington entirely and eliminating dynasty relevance on rosters holding him as a Daniels handcuff.

  • Starter Dependency

    Entire value depends on Jayden Daniels' health. Daniels suffered three separate injuries in 2025 (hamstring, knee, dislocated elbow) but is expected to be fully healthy for 2026, which would reduce Mariota to clipboard holder status with zero fantasy relevance.

  • Depth Chart

    Mariota re-signed with Washington in March 2026 on a 1-year deal explicitly as Jayden Daniels' backup. With Daniels entrenched as the long-term franchise QB, Mariota has zero path to a starting role in Washington.

  • QB Dependency

    All of Mariota's relevance is downstream of Daniels' health. Daniels reports he's healthy after a 'miserable' injury-marred 2025 (missed 10 games — elbow dislocation, knee, hamstring) and has focused the offseason on durability, shrinking Mariota's snap path.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns

    If Washington's starter gets injured, Mariota could provide veteran short-term value as a bridge QB. His experience offers some floor in emergency scenarios.

  • Starter Proven Capability

    Mariota started 8 games in 2025 when Daniels was injured, posting a 93.4 passer rating with a 14-7 TD:INT ratio across 14 games. He demonstrated NFL-caliber emergency starter competence, making him valuable in very deep benches.

  • Starting Opportunity Elsewhere

    Multiple teams including the Jets and Chiefs have expressed interest in Mariota as a bridge starter or high-end backup. He posted a respectable 93.4 passer rating with 1,695 yards, 10 TDs, 7 INTs across 8 starts in 2025, proving he can still function as an emergency NFL starter.

  • Injury Fill-In

    Daniels missed more than half of 2025 with a knee sprain, hamstring strain, and elbow dislocation — Mariota started multiple late-season games and showed competence (23.3 pts W13, 14.7 pts W15). If the elbow is not fully healed, there is a non-trivial chance Mariota sees extended action again in 2026.

  • Re-sign Scenario

    NFL.com urged the Commanders to re-sign Mariota given Daniels' injury history and proven value as backup. If re-signed, he remains a deep league handcuff to a young QB with durability questions, though this only has value in very deep superflex formats.

  • Starter Upside

    Mariota's 2025 fill-in stretches validated that he can be an emergency fantasy starter — not a season-winner, but worth a streaming add if Daniels misses time in a 2QB or Superflex format.

Format Comparison

Marcus Mariota — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest530—
PPR 1QB385-145