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Malik Willis headshot

Malik Willis

QB · #26

MIA · QB · Age 27

Redraft rank
QB24
•QB24 · Flex play
Tier
T2
Overall
#46
ADP
QB25
Consensus
Coin flip

Malik Willis's $67.5M, three-year deal with Miami signals a genuine starting job but his unproven passing résumé and the team's commitment to drafting QBs annually limit his ceiling.

Role & trajectory
Willis's carry share trended up sharply in Green Bay, reaching 53% late in the season, indicating a strong rushing floor that could translate into fantasy points.
Projected outlook
Despite his elite mobility and dual-threat ability, Willis's passing efficiency is based on limited sample sizes (78% completion rate across 11 appearances), raising questions about sustaining QB1 production over a full season.
Risk & schedule
Miami's commitment to drafting a QB annually poses a significant risk, with the potential for a rookie in 2027 to leapfrog Willis and limit his long-term job security.
Value vs ADP+1 slots of value
Our rank
QB24
vs
Market ADP
QB25
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Source agreement
±19 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Projection rank, ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-26 quarterbacks most similar to Malik Willis's 2025 season, 1 finished QB2, 1 finished QB3, 4 finished QB4+, 4 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB2 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

40%40%
  • QB210%(1)
  • QB310%(1)
  • QB4+40%(4)
  • Missed season40%(4)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
60%hang on~10.3 PPG·40%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–11.513.3
10 most similar players
Mitchell Trubisky97%
2022·QB38 · 10.6 PPG
Gardner Minshew96%
2023·QB21 · 12.3 PPG
PJ Walker96%
2022·QB44 · 6.5 PPG
Logan Woodside95%
2022·Missed the season
Teddy Bridgewater95%
2019·QB31 · 10.1 PPG
Kenny Pickett95%
2025·QB54 · 1.3 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Backup QB Status

    Willis remains a backup on the Packers depth chart behind Jordan Love, severely limiting his dynasty relevance and starting opportunity in 2025-2026.

  • Imminent Free Agency

    Willis will be unrestricted free agent in March 2026, leaving the Packers entirely. He is actively expected to depart and compete for a starting job elsewhere.

  • Supporting Cast

    Miami traded Jaylen Waddle shortly after signing Willis, leaving him with a WR room of Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, and Malik Washington — a bottom-tier group that caps Willis's fantasy ceiling regardless of his personal efficiency.

  • Offensive Context

    After Miami traded Jaylen Waddle to the Broncos, the 2026 WR depth chart is headlined by Malik Washington (65 targets, 317 yards last season), Jalen Tolbert, and Tutu Atwell — among the weakest top-WR trios in the league, severely capping Willis's passing upside and fantasy ceiling.

  • Draft Capital

    Dolphins GM Jon-Eric Sullivan has publicly stated the team will draft a QB this year and 'likely every year,' so Willis's grip on the job is conditional and a 2027 rookie could leapfrog him even if he plays well.

  • Team Outlook

    Miami is in a full organizational reset carrying over $175M in dead money; the team is projected near the bottom of the AFC in 2026, which limits scoring context and raises the probability of a future high draft pick targeting a franchise QB in 2027 (Arch Manning-tier class).

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Starting Job Landing

    Multiple QB-needy teams (Jets, Cardinals, Dolphins, Falcons, Steelers) are linked to Willis. He stands to move from backup to starter, massively increasing his fantasy ceiling and dynasty value.

  • Scheme Fit

    Willis' success under Matt LaFleur's offense is notable, but his elite athleticism and dual-threat ability (261 rushing yards in 11 games) translates to multiple offensive schemes, enhancing landing spot flexibility.

  • Multiple Starting Opportunities

    Multiple teams (Dolphins, Cardinals, Steelers, Browns, Jets) have been explicitly linked to Willis as a starting option. The Dolphins' new coach Jeff Hafley and Cardinals' new coach Mike LaFleur both have direct ties to Willis from Green Bay.

  • Lucrative Contract

    Industry projections range from $20-26 million per year on a 2-year deal similar to Justin Fields' contract with the Jets. Willis will see a massive salary increase from his $1.42M 2025 earnings, likely with $30M guaranteed.

  • Starting Opportunity

    The 3-year, $67.5M deal ($45M guaranteed) with the Dolphins establishes Willis as an unambiguous QB1 with job security, removing the backup-role discount that suppressed his dynasty value throughout his Green Bay tenure.

  • Rushing Upside

    Willis's elite mobility projects to 650+ rushing yards and ~6 rushing TDs in 2026, providing a reliable fantasy scoring floor in SuperFlex formats that is independent of Miami's shaky passing game infrastructure.

Format Comparison

Malik Willis — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest2,511—
PPR 1QB1,764-747