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Mack Hollins headshot

Mack Hollins

WR · #153

NE · WR · Age 32

Redraft rank
WR117
◆WR117 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#289
ADP
WR96
Consensus
Coin flip

Mack Hollins secured a surprise payday from the Patriots after his playoff contributions, but faces significant competition for snaps in 2026.

Role & trajectory
Hollins' role as an every-week top-three receiver has been demoted to rotational WR4 due to the addition of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs, with seven receivers competing for five or six roster spots.
Projected outlook
Despite his strong playoff performance in 2025 (13% target share, aDOT 14.2), Hollins' value is now WR116 due to the depth at receiver and his age approaching decline.
Risk & schedule
The risk of losing snaps or a job remains high with seven receivers competing for limited playing time, though an injury above him could restore his playoff-era role.
Value vs ADP-21 slots (reach)
Our rank
WR117
vs
Market ADP
WR96
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR117 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
WR96 ADP · -21 slots
Major
−
Source agreement
±21 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
−
Age / role
age 32 WR
Notable
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-32 receivers most similar to Mack Hollins's 2025 season, 8 finished WR4+, 2 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

79%21%
  • WR4+79%(8)
  • Missed season21%(2)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range5.0 median
0.0p25–p75 3.8–7.38.7
10 most similar players
DeSean Jackson83%
2021·WR96 · 5.3 PPG
T.Y. Hilton83%
2022·WR139 · 5.2 PPG
Antonio Brown73%
2022·Missed the season
Marquise Goodwin70%
2022·WR81 · 7.5 PPG
John Brown69%
2021·Missed the season
Julio Jones69%
2021·WR78 · 8.4 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

3
  • Age Concerns

    Hollins turns 33 early in the 2026 season, squarely in the WR decline phase with no dynasty appreciation runway. Per Pats Pulpit's 2026 scouting report he is 'not a world beater' and projects as a stopgap WR2/WR3 at best.

  • Target Volume

    New England added A.J. Brown via trade and signed Romeo Doubs to a 4-year/$80M deal as the WR2, while sophomore Kyle Williams is emerging — pushing Hollins down to a WR4/blocking role. His target share already trended down to 20% over the final stretch.

  • Contract Situation

    Hollins is under contract for 2026 but carries no guarantees beyond ~$1.15M in signing bonuses; New England can release him to save roughly $4.5M against the cap. A crowded, retooled room makes him a realistic camp cut candidate.

Opportunity Flags

1
  • Usage & Volume

    Hollins held a stable 72% snap share and proved trusted in the biggest spots (17.8 PPR pts on 20% target share in Super Bowl LX). If Boutte is traded or an injury hits ahead of him, he could back into spot flex relevance, though it carries no lasting dynasty value at his age.

Format Comparison

Mack Hollins — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest650—
PPR SF558-92