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Mac Jones headshot

Mac Jones

QB · #33

SF · QB · Age 27

Redraft rank
QB43
◆QB43 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#416
ADP
QB32
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP-11 slots (reach)
Our rank
QB43
vs
Market ADP
QB32
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
QB43 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
QB32 ADP · -11 slots
Major
−
Source agreement
±22 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-27 quarterbacks most similar to Mac Jones's 2025 season, 2 finished QB2, 4 finished QB4+, 4 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB2 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

20%40%40%
  • QB220%(2)
  • QB4+40%(4)
  • Missed season40%(4)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
60%hang on~11.7 PPG·40%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–13.616.2
10 most similar players
Teddy Bridgewater98%
2020·QB20 · 16.1 PPG
Derek Carr97%
2018·Missed the season
Mitchell Trubisky93%
2022·QB38 · 10.6 PPG
Cooper Rush89%
2022·QB40 · 7.1 PPG
PJ Walker89%
2022·QB44 · 6.5 PPG
Logan Woodside88%
2022·Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Mac Jones is firmly locked in as Brock Purdy's backup after San Francisco proactively revised his deal on May 27, 2026 ($3.55M plus $2.25M in incentives), and Shanahan explicitly prioritized continuity over the trade interest that swirled this offseason. The structured logs confirm a pure-backup profile — single-digit snap shares and near-zero fantasy points whenever Purdy plays — so Jones has essentially no standalone dynasty value in 1QB formats and only deep-superflex relevance. His upside is entirely contingent: Purdy's turf-toe and Week 18 stinger history gives Jones real contingency value (he went 5-3 with a career-best 69.6% completion as a 2025 fill-in), and he hits unrestricted free agency after 2026 where a starting opportunity is his only path to a meaningful value bump. Age 27 is fine for a QB, so there's no urgency to dump him, but the realistic ceiling is capped. Recommendation: HOLD in superflex as a cheap injury-contingency/2027-FA lottery ticket; SELL in 1QB leagues where he's a roster-clogging non-asset. Revisit as a buy only if Purdy gets hurt again or Jones lands a starting job in 2027.

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
No call yetLow confidence

The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Backup QB Role Locked

    The 49ers have no intention of trading Jones and plan to keep him on the roster for the 2026 NFL season, cementing his backup status. Given Purdy's injury concerns, it would be surprising to see Jones moved during the offseason, meaning dynasty value is capped unless traded.

  • Backup Status Ceiling

    The 49ers have no plans to trade quarterback Mac Jones this offseason and fully intend to bring him back as Brock Purdy's backup. Dynasty value is locked at backup tier unless Purdy suffers extended injury.

  • Scheme Dependent Production

    Jones' 2025 success (69.6% completion, 97.4 rating) is heavily attributed to Shanahan's elite system, raising concerns about portability if traded elsewhere. His previous QBRs of 38.4, 37.5, and 36.6 with New England and Jacksonville suggest scheme dependency.

  • Backup Role Ceiling

    The 49ers have publicly stated they have no plans to trade Jones and intend to keep him as Purdy's backup. With Purdy locked into a $53MM per season extension, Jones' dynasty value is capped at the handcuff tier unless a trade materializes.

  • Trade Market Closed

    The trade market for Jones collapsed entirely during the 2026 NFL Draft cycle — Kyle Shanahan publicly expressed surprise no team submitted an offer, and Schefter reported the 49ers do not expect to trade him. The near-term path to starting value via trade has definitively closed, directly contradicting the prior analysis's `trade_market_active` opportunity flag.

  • Depth Chart Ceiling

    Brock Purdy is healthy, reporting to the 2026 offseason program, and optimistic his turf toe is fully resolved after missing 8 games in 2025. Jones is cemented as the backup with 5–15% snap shares and zero target volume across the last four observed games — meaningful production requires Purdy missing substantial time again.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns2

    Purdy has dealt with several significant injuries, including a torn UCL in the 2023 NFC Championship game and a brutal turf toe injury in Week 4 of this season. Jones demonstrated he can win games in Shanahan's system, providing legitimate handcuff upside if Purdy misses time.

  • Trade Market Active

    Multiple teams plan to at least reach out to the 49ers about a Jones trade. Teams like the Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Browns, Vikings, Falcons, and Cardinals could consider trading for Jones. This could unlock starting upside if acquired by QB-needy team.

  • Trade Market

    Multiple QB-needy franchises — Jets, Raiders, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns, and potentially the Rams and Panthers — have reportedly inquired about Jones, and Jones himself has publicly stated he wants to start in 2026 ('I have my swag back'), making a trade a live possibility.

  • Proven Starting Capability

    Jones won five of his eight starts in 2025, setting new career highs in completion percentage (69.6%) and yards per attempt (7.4). He posted 2,151 passing yards on a 97.4 passer rating with 13 TDs and 6 INTs, validating his ability to execute in an elite offense.

  • Trade Market Buzz

    Multiple teams including the Vikings, Steelers, Dolphins, Jets, Browns, and Cardinals are expected to reach out about trading for Jones. The weak 2026 QB draft class (only Fernando Mendoza as a first-round lock) could drive up demand and potentially unlock starting upside.

Format Comparison

Mac Jones — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest1,409—
PPR 1QB1,022-387