Opportunity Flags
1- Youth Upside
Young WR (22) — still in value appreciation phase
Luther Burden
WR · #19CHI · WR · Age 22
Redraft rank
WR21
WR21 · Flex play+37 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T2
Overall
#71
ADP
WR58
Consensus
Tight
Luther Burden enters his second season as a clear top-two option in Chicago with a projected target share that must nearly double to meet mainstream breakout projections.
Role & trajectory
Burden's rookie year saw him finish as PPR WR47, but an 8-138-1 Week 17 game at a 23% target share showed his potential ceiling.
Projected outlook
Mainstream projections for Burden in the upcoming season sit around 72-79 catches and over 1,000 yards, positioning him as a WR2-or-better finisher.
Risk & schedule
Rome Odunze and high-end TE Colston Loveland will command significant target shares in the passing game, adding marginal friction to Burden's projected breakout.
Value vs ADP+37 slots of value
Our rank
WR21
Market ADP
WR58
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rankMajorMinor
Case for
ADP value
WR58 ADP · +37 slots
Age / role
age 22 WR
Neutral: Projection rank, Source agreement
What similar players becameMedium confidence
Of the 10 age-22 receivers most similar to Luther Burden's 2025 season, 1 finished WR2, 7 finished WR4+, 2 missed the season.
Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
70%20%
- WR210%(1)
- WR4+70%(7)
- Missed season20%(2)
“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.
Next-season PPG range5.0 median
0.0p25–p75 2.7–8.712.4
10 most similar players
Skyy Moore91%
2023WR111 · 4.1 PPG
Jalen Reagor86%
2022WR138 · 2.7 PPG
Kadarius Toney85%
2022WR95 · 6.6 PPG
Parris Campbell82%
2020Missed the season
Lynn Bowden Jr.81%
2021Missed the season
Wan'Dale Robinson81%
2023WR56 · 8.9 PPG
+4 more analogs
Intel may be outdated · updated 20 days ago
Our read vs. the market
BetaNo call yetLow confidence
Not enough recent NFL production to trust the fundamentals rank yet — no call.
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (1 flags)
Format Comparison
Luther Burden — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 4,660 | — |
| PPR SF | 4,040 | -620 |