Opportunity Flags
1- Depth Insurance
As the next man up on the depth chart above DJ Rogers, an injury to Jake Ferguson would be the primary path to a short-term snap and target bump.
Luke Schoonmaker
TE · #68DAL · TE · Age 27
Redraft rank
TE66
TE66 · DepthROS TE64
Tier
T4
Overall
#323
ADP
—
Consensus
Coin flip
Value vs ADP
No redraft ADP yet — too early in draft season, or outside ADP coverage.
What’s driving the season rankNotableNotable
Case against
Projection rank
TE66 · proj. consensus
Source agreement
±15 rank σ · 2 sources
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence
Of the 10 age-27 tight ends most similar to Luke Schoonmaker's 2025 season, 1 finished TE3, 6 finished TE4+, 3 missed the season.
Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
60%30%
- TE310%(1)
- TE4+60%(6)
- Missed season30%(3)
“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.
Next-season PPG range2.7 median
0.0p25–p75 0.0–4.76.1
10 most similar players
Tyler Kroft98%
2020TE54 · 7.0 PPG
Hunter Long95%
2025TE58 · 4.6 PPG
Jesse James95%
2022Missed the season
O.J. Howard92%
2022TE57 · 3.3 PPG
Charlie Kolar90%
2025TE57 · 2.8 PPG
Eric Ebron90%
2022Missed the season
+4 more analogs
Analysis
He is playing out the final, unguaranteed year of his rookie contract behind an entrenched Jake Ferguson, and the 2026 draft class brought no direct positional competition, but that hasn't translated into opportunity given the coaching staff's clear pecking order. His only realistic paths to relevance are a Ferguson injury or a post-2026 change of scenery in free agency, neither of which is likely enough to bank on. This is a clear sell or non-priority dynasty asset in all but the deepest TE-needy leagues — hold only as a zero-cost speculative stash, and revisit if his depth-chart standing or contract situation changes.
Intel updated: 2 hours ago
Current statusDAL
Our read vs. the market
BetaFairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Strong usage productionElite target shareAge 27 · peak windowTDs due to regress
Our view vs Market↑ 14 pts above market
Our view
22
Market
8
Thin opportunity shareProduction lagging value
Our own read · beta — not a trade price.
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (1 flags)
Format Comparison
Luke Schoonmaker — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR 1QBBest | 712 | — |
| PPR SF | 576 | -136 |