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Luke Musgrave headshot

Luke Musgrave

TE · #48

GB · TE · Age 25

Redraft rank
TE55
◆TE55 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#307
ADP
TE31
Consensus
Coin flip

Luke Musgrave's 2025 season saw just 24 catches for 252 yards on 31 targets, a disqualifying TE1 audition that raises genuine ceiling concerns.

Role & trajectory
Musgrave has shown flashes but hasn't established himself as a league-leading target hog, with production varying significantly week-to-week. Despite an 80% snap share in recent games, his target share dropped to just 5%, indicating he is primarily functioning as an inline blocker.
Projected outlook
Tucker Kraft's expected return for Week 1 of the 2026 season immediately closes off any meaningful target share path for Musgrave in Green Bay, leaving him with no viable path to a featured receiving role.
Risk & schedule
Musgrave is entering the final year of his rookie deal and Green Bay has shown no urgency to extend him. He projects to hit unrestricted free agency in 2027, leaving his future landing spot and role entirely undefined.
Value vs ADP-24 slots (reach)
Our rank
TE55
vs
Market ADP
TE31
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
TE55 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
TE31 ADP · -24 slots
Major
−
Source agreement
±11 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Age / role
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 age-25 tight ends most similar to Luke Musgrave's 2025 season, 2 finished TE1, 1 finished TE2, 1 finished TE3, 6 finished TE4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

20%60%
  • TE120%(2)
  • TE210%(1)
  • TE310%(1)
  • TE4+60%(6)
Next-season PPG range3.6 median
1.6p25–p75 2.5–8.711.3
10 most similar players
MyCole Pruitt89%
2019·TE59 · 3.1 PPG
Mo Alie-Cox89%
2019·TE75 · 1.9 PPG
Robert Tonyan87%
2020·TE3 · 11.7 PPG
Tanner Hudson86%
2020·TE87 · 1.4 PPG
Juwan Johnson85%
2022·TE16 · 8.4 PPG
Anthony Firkser85%
2020·TE27 · 5.6 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Slight buy-low — we value him a bit above the marketSlight
Why
Solid usage productionStrong target shareAge 25 · ascendingTDs due to regress
  • ▲Draft-capital pedigree
  • ▲Touchdown-luck regression
Our view vs Market↑ 17 pts above market
Our view
31
Market
14
Long career runwayThin opportunity share

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Target Volume

    Despite suiting up for all 17 regular-season games in 2025, Musgrave totaled just 24 catches for 252 yards (on 31 targets) without a single touchdown. In Week 17, Josh Whyle played 28 snaps to Musgrave's 18 in a pass-heavy script, suggesting the Packers have leaned on Whyle more than Musgrave in recent weeks when they actually need to throw the ball.

  • Usage & Volume

    Fellow tight end John FitzPatrick had a 70 percent snap share while Musgrave played 52 percent of Green Bay's offensive snaps. Even though Tucker Kraft's injury opened the door for Musgrave to recapture a big role on the offense, there were games when he played fewer snaps than John FitzPatrick and Josh Whyle.

  • Depth Chart

    Tucker Kraft is ahead of schedule in his ACL recovery and expected to return Week 1 of 2026, immediately pushing Musgrave back to a backup role. GM Brian Gutekunst has indicated extension talks with Kraft are a priority, cementing him as the long-term TE1.

  • Starter Threat

    Tucker Kraft is 'right on schedule' with his ACL recovery (torn Week 9, 2025) and expected back for Week 1, 2026; Matt LaFleur called him 'a big focal point of our offense.' Musgrave has no viable path to meaningful targets in Green Bay once Kraft is healthy.

  • Production Ceiling

    As the de facto TE1 following Kraft's injury, Musgrave totaled just 24 catches, 252 yards, and zero touchdowns on 31 targets across 17 games—a disqualifying TE1 audition that raises genuine ceiling concerns regardless of landing spot.

  • Target Competition

    Musgrave is a clear TE2 behind Tucker Kraft (value vs), who is expected back early in 2026 and is the front office's extension priority. As long as both are healthy in Green Bay, Musgrave has no path to a featured receiving role.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Draft Capital2

    Persistent reporting links Musgrave to a trade (Dolphins frequently named); a deal reportedly nearly happened before the deadline. A move to a team installing him as the primary receiving TE would multiply his dynasty value overnight.

  • Injury Concerns

    Tucker Kraft said mid-January that he is already ahead of schedule from his recovery from a right ACL tear suffered early January and that he expects to be ready for Week 1 of the 2026 campaign. Kraft's expected return puts Musgrave back in a secondary role long-term, limiting upside.

  • Trade Destination

    Active trade rumors as of April 2026 link Musgrave to the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Ravens—a landing spot with a clear TE1 role and functional QB could dramatically reframe his dynasty value from backup-level to startable.

  • Role Expansion

    Dolphins GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and HC Jeff Hafley are both Packers alumni with direct familiarity with Musgrave, and Miami has a real roster need at receiving TE; a trade would instantly make him the target-share leader in a position-starved offense.

  • Receiving Profile Mismatch

    Offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said Musgrave provides a different kind of player than Tucker in the pass game, serving as a really good down-the-field threat with really good speed and good range when he catches the ball, positioning him to get more targets and take over that vertical role.

Format Comparison

Luke Musgrave — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest755—
PPR SF644-111