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Luke McCaffrey headshot

Luke McCaffrey

WR · #131

WAS · WR · Age 25

◆FLEX

Luke McCaffrey's recent trend of receiving minimal playing time signals a limited role in the offense, despite his team's coaching change.

Role & volume
Over the last four games, Luke McCaffrey has averaged just 35.8% snap share and 5.2% target share, indicating a minimal role in the offense.
Projected role
With his recent trend of declining usage and no clear indication that the new coaching staff will significantly alter his role, McCaffrey is projected to maintain a limited role as a depth receiver.
Range (floor–ceiling)
Given his current value rank of WR154, McCaffrey's range remains narrow with little upside potential for significant fantasy production in the upcoming season.
Intel may be outdated · updated 48 days ago
Current statusWAS
Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Solid usage productionSolid target shareAge 25 · ascendingTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↑ 9 pts above market
Our view
21
Market
12
Long career runwayTD rebound upside

Our own read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (4 flags)

Risk Flags

3
  • Target Competition

    He sits behind an entrenched McLaurin-Diggs top two, with Antonio Williams and Dyami Brown also ahead of him on the 2026 depth chart, capping his target share in a six-deep WR room (4% target share, 40% snap share in his last extended sample).

  • Injury History

    A Week 9 collarbone fracture suffered on a kickoff ended his prior season early, and he has already missed a game this season on a coach's decision, adding durability and role-security questions on top of the crowded room.

  • Usage Trend

    Snap share and target share were already declining before the injury (54% down to 38% snaps, target share falling toward 4-6%), suggesting the role was tenuous even before health became a factor.

Opportunity Flags

1
  • Big-Play Role

    A 13.6 aDOT with roughly half his targets going deep gives him spike-week upside on minimal volume, as shown by a double-digit fantasy output in a week with only a 38% snap share.

Format Comparison

Luke McCaffrey — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest718—
PPR SF568-150