Lamar Jackson
QB · #3BAL · QB · Age 28
Redraft rank
QB2
QB2 · Elite start
Tier
T1
Overall
#5
ADP
QB2
Consensus
Tight
Lamar Jackson's 2025 season saw his carry share drop to a career-low 13%, raising questions about whether this is an injury-induced decline or a permanent style change.
Role & trajectory
Jackson remains Baltimore's undisputed starter with 92% snap share in 2025, but the addition of rookie pass-catchers and a new coaching staff could either rejuvenate or mismanage his usage.
Projected outlook
A healthy Jackson is projected to return as a top-5 fantasy QB at the cheapest acquisition cost of his prime, with efficiency metrics holding steady despite injuries in 2025.
Risk & schedule
The risk lies in whether the reduced rushing volume is due to injury or a shift in playing style; Jackson's durability concerns are heightened by multiple injuries sustained during the previous season.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
QB2
Market ADP
QB2
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rankMajorNotable
Case for
Projection rank
QB2 · proj. consensus
Source agreement
±4 rank σ · 2 sources
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence
Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.
20%30%30%
- QB120%(2)
- QB230%(3)
- QB330%(3)
- QB4+10%(1)
- Missed season10%(1)
“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.
Next-season PPG range17.1 median
3.5p25–p75 13.6–21.221.5
10 most similar players
Deshaun Watson94%
2025Missed the season
Baker Mayfield94%
2024QB5 · 21.2 PPG
Joe Burrow93%
2025QB29 · 16.8 PPG
Teddy Bridgewater92%
2021QB22 · 14.5 PPG
Carson Wentz92%
2022QB32 · 14.1 PPG
Kirk Cousins91%
2018QB13 · 17.7 PPG
+4 more analogs
Our read vs. the market
BetaNo call yetLow confidence
The QB position isn't modeled yet — no call.
Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.
Format Comparison
Lamar Jackson — Format Comparison
| Format | Value | vs Best |
|---|---|---|
| PPR SFBest | 7,916 | — |
| PPR 1QB | 4,951 | -2,965 |