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Kyren Williams headshot

Kyren Williams

RB · #16

LAR · RB · Age 25

Redraft rank
RB17
•RB17 · Every-week starter
Tier
T2
Overall
#68
ADP
RB17
Consensus
Coin flip

Kyren Williams posted a PPR RB7 finish in 2025 with 320.6 points, cementing his status as the Rams' primary back despite emerging competition from Blake Corum.

Role & trajectory
Williams is locked in as the lead back through 2028 on a $33M extension but faces a near 50-50 carry split with Corum, who broke out late in 2025.
Projected outlook
Williams remains a reliable weekly starter due to his contract security and the Rams' elite offensive environment, though his PPR ceiling is capped by reduced receiving opportunities.
Risk & schedule
The risk of role compression from Corum's emergence and Williams' age-related decline (25.4 years old) could tighten his workload and erode value over the next 2-3 seasons.
Value vs ADPat market
Our rank
RB17
vs
Market ADP
RB17
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
Projection rank
RB17 · proj. consensus
Notable
Case against
−
Source agreement
±13 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: ADP value, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-25 backs most similar to Kyren Williams's 2025 season, 4 finished RB1, 1 finished RB2, 4 finished RB4+, 1 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → RB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

40%39%
  • RB140%(4)
  • RB29%(1)
  • RB4+39%(4)
  • Missed season12%(1)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season PPG range13.6 median
2.8p25–p75 9.2–17.120.3
10 most similar players
Devonta Freeman88%
2018·Missed the season
Aaron Jones80%
2020·RB4 · 17.7 PPG
Saquon Barkley76%
2024·RB1 · 22.8 PPG
Kareem Hunt76%
2021·RB48 · 13.8 PPG
James Cook75%
2024·RB5 · 17.1 PPG
Jordan Howard75%
2019·RB40 · 12.4 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Strong usage productionElite carry shareAge 25 · ascendingTDs due to rebound
Our view vs Market↑ 9 pts above market
Our view
89
Market
80
Elite carry shareLong career runwayProducing above value

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Usage & Volume2

    Snap share has slipped to 51% and target share to 6% while Blake Corum broke out in 2025 (145 carries, 6 TDs); the Rams are deliberately balancing skill sets, capping Kyren's bell-cow ceiling.

  • Age Concerns

    At 25.4 years old, Williams is entering the typical decline phase for running backs. His 610 touches over the last two seasons (third most in NFL) compounds the risk of accelerated decline given the cumulative wear.

  • Offensive Coordinator Transition

    Mike LaFleur, the Rams' offensive coordinator for three years, was hired as the Arizona Cardinals' head coach in February 2026. While the Rams' offense was statistically the best in the league, fueled by an efficient run game, the new OC hire could impact Williams' touches and role in 2026.

  • Backfield Competition

    Blake Corum posted 782 scrimmage yards, 6 TDs, and 5+ YPC in 2025, cementing himself as a legitimate co-back. Williams absorbed 55 fewer touches in 2025 vs. 2024, and late-season snap share (51% in W21) and target share (6% in W21) trended downward — signs Corum's role is not a flash.

  • Age Trajectory

    Williams turns 26 during the 2026 season; usage trends (snap share down, target share down) suggest incremental role compression already underway. RBs historically see significant value decay from ages 26–28, and his contract has a clean post-2026 cut window with $10M in cap savings.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Bell Cow Role

    Williams has established himself as LAR's primary back with strong touch volume. If he maintains this role through 2025-2026, he could deliver RB1 production despite his age, maximizing the remaining peak window.

  • Elite Rb1 Production Window

    Williams surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the third straight season, becoming the first Rams running back to do so since Steven Jackson. Since 2000, only Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson have reached + rushing yards and 36+ rushing touchdowns over a three-year span at age 25 or younger—elite historical company with 2-3 peak years remaining.

  • Feature Back Security

    The fact that he out-touched Corum in all three of the Rams' playoff contests bodes well for him retaining the lead back role in 2026. Williams signed a contract extension with a guaranteed amount of $23 million, making him a franchise-locked running back.

  • Elite Historical Company

    Williams is only the third player since 2000 (alongside Adrian Peterson and LaDainian Tomlinson) to reach + rushing yards and 36+ rushing touchdowns over a three-year span at age 25 or younger, suggesting 2-3 peak years remain.

  • Usage & Volume

    Williams enters 2026 as the unambiguous RB1 with a locked-in 3-year contract, 259 carries and 36 receptions in 2025, and no credible every-down challenger on the roster. That workload volume floor makes him a reliable weekly starter.

  • Draft Capital

    The Rams did not draft a single running back in the 2026 NFL Draft — a direct green light for Williams' volume. His path to 250+ carries and 50+ targets in 2026 is the cleanest it has been, with no incoming rookie threat to his lead-back role.

Format Comparison

Kyren Williams — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest4,145—
PPR SF3,470-675