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Kyler Murray headshot

Kyler Murray

QB · #22

MIN · QB · Age 28

Redraft rank
QB20
•QB20 · Flex play
Tier
T2
Overall
#38
ADP
QB18
Consensus
Coin flip

Kyler Murray's 7.9% carry share from his previous team, despite a limited sample size due to injury, signals he remains a dual-threat QB with rushing equity that drives fantasy upside.

Role & trajectory
Murray is the presumptive starter in Minnesota after decisively outplaying J.J. McCarthy in OTAs, but his carry share has trended down post-injury, raising concerns about long-term rushing production.
Projected outlook
With a strong receiver room and Kevin O'Connell's QB-friendly scheme, Murray projects as a top-8 fantasy QB if he secures the starting role, but his value is capped by the one-year rental contract and McCarthy's long-term succession.
Risk & schedule
Murray faces significant injury risk given recent ACL tear and foot sprain that limited him to five games in 2025; mid-foot injuries carry re-injury risks, especially under repeated scramble loads.
Value vs ADP-2 slots (reach)
Our rank
QB20
vs
Market ADP
QB18
Priced right where they project.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
ADP value
QB18 ADP · -2 slots
Minor
−
Source agreement
±13 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
Neutral: Projection rank, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-28 quarterbacks most similar to Kyler Murray's 2025 season, 1 finished QB1, 3 finished QB2, 2 finished QB3, 4 finished QB4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span QB4+ → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

30%19%40%
  • QB111%(1)
  • QB230%(3)
  • QB319%(2)
  • QB4+40%(4)
Next-season PPG range12.5 median
0.3p25–p75 6.9–17.618.9
10 most similar players
Gardner Minshew99%
2025·QB57 · -0.1 PPG
Derek Carr98%
2020·QB15 · 17.0 PPG
Jared Goff97%
2024·QB8 · 18.5 PPG
Blaine Gabbert96%
2018·QB41 · 4.1 PPG
Case Keenum92%
2018·QB18 · 13.4 PPG
Dak Prescott89%
2022·QB13 · 17.6 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Injury Concerns3

    Murray will not return for the rest of the season as his foot injury hasn't progressed, and a foot injury this past season limited him to five games. This compounds an alarming injury pattern and raises concerns about durability going forward.

  • Imminent Trade Departure

    That partnership is unlikely to go on for long under new HC Mike LaFleur, with Arizona likely to move on from Kyler Murray this offseason. Murray has a cap number of $52.7 million in 2026 with guaranteed $36.8 million, but if on roster past March 11, he is guaranteed an extra $20 million.

  • Trade Imminent

    Arizona has publicly stated they are exploring trading Murray this offseason, with reports indicating the team is 'likely to move on' from the quarterback. His expected trade value is only a second or third-round pick, with some estimates as low as a late third or fourth-rounder.

  • Injury Recurrence

    Mid-foot sprains carry significant re-injury risk, especially under repeated scramble loads. Murray declared himself healthy, but the Cardinals notably refused to re-insert him after what appeared to be near-full recovery in 2025, raising questions about how complete the healing actually was.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Scheme Fit3

    Kevin O'Connell's motion-heavy, RPO-friendly offense is widely regarded as an elite fit for Murray's dual-threat profile; analysts have noted Murray is the best rushing QB O'Connell has coached.

  • Offensive Context2

    Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison give Murray the best receiver room of his career — a significant upgrade over his Arizona situation that could unlock a meaningful statistical rebound if he wins the starting job.

  • Dual Threat Upside

    Murray's rushing ability provides a higher ceiling than traditional pocket QBs in dynasty formats; any offensive scheme that leverages this edge could unlock significant weekly volatility and season-long upside.

Format Comparison

Kyler Murray — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest3,282—
PPR 1QB1,926-1,356