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Keon Coleman headshot

Keon Coleman

WR · #90

BUF · WR · Age 23

Redraft rank
WR116
▲WR116 · Depth+40 slots of value vs ADP
Tier
T4
Overall
#286
ADP
WR156
Consensus
Coin flip

Keon Coleman's 2025 target share fell to just 12.2%, with a demotion in the WR rotation, making him a bench option for the upcoming season.

Role & trajectory
Coleman's role has been trending downward, as evidenced by his falling target share and snap percentage over the course of 2025.
Projected outlook
With Buffalo trading for D.J. Moore in March 2026, Coleman faces stiff competition for targets from established receivers like Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid.
Risk & schedule
The addition of D.J. Moore to the Bills' roster significantly reduces Coleman's chances of securing a meaningful role in an already crowded WR room, making him a high-risk bench option.
Value vs ADP+40 slots of value
Our rank
WR116
vs
Market ADP
WR156
Projects better than the draft room is paying.
What’s driving the season rank
Case for
+
ADP value
WR156 ADP · +40 slots
Major
+
Age / role
age 23 WR
Minor
Case against
−
Projection rank
WR116 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
Source agreement
±47 rank σ · 2 sources
Notable
What similar players becameMedium confidence

Of the 10 receivers most similar to Keon Coleman, 1 finished WR2, 1 finished WR3, 8 finished WR4+.

Based on just 10 analogs — directional, not a forecast.

80%
  • WR210%(1)
  • WR310%(1)
  • WR4+80%(8)
Year-two PPG range7.9 median
2.9p25–p75 5.1–10.613.4
10 most similar players
Jameson Williams94%
2023·WR56 · 7.4 PPG
Joshua Palmer93%
2023·WR58 · 10.7 PPG
Tyquan Thornton93%
2023·WR93 · 3.0 PPG
Wan'Dale Robinson90%
2023·WR51 · 8.9 PPG
Marvin Mims90%
2024·WR57 · 7.8 PPG
Elijah Moore90%
2023·WR49 · 8.0 PPG

+4 more analogs

Also see:

Our read vs. the market

Beta
Fairly priced — we're in line with the marketIn line
Why
Average usage productionAverage target shareAge 23 · ascending
Our view vs Market↑ 10 pts above market
Our view
54
Market
44
Long career runway

Our own independent read · beta — not a trade price.

Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Maturity Concerns3

    Off-field issues (late to meetings) disrupted Coleman's 2025 playing time despite team acknowledging on-field production was "good". GM Beane emphasized Coleman must avoid immaturity to maintain trust and opportunities.

  • Target Competition2

    Buffalo traded a 2nd-round pick to Chicago for DJ Moore, inserting an elite WR1 above Coleman on the depth chart. With Khalil Shakir entrenched in the slot, Coleman is at best WR3 in a three-wide set, severely capping his target ceiling.

  • Off Field Maturity

    Coleman was benched and made a healthy scratch for four games in 2025 due to being late to meetings and off-field timing issues. GM Beane and HC Brady both emphasized he must handle off-field responsibilities to earn opportunities.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Scheme Fit2

    New head coach Joe Brady was the offensive coordinator who pushed to draft Coleman and emphatically stated: "Keon Coleman is going to be on our football team." Brady views Coleman's 2025 as a "learning year" and expressed confidence in his development, suggesting more opportunity under his coaching.

  • Age Window

    At 22.7, Coleman is squarely in the value appreciation window for WRs. His physical tools (size, athleticism) suggest untapped potential if role expands in 2025-2026.

  • Amari Cooper Departure

    Amari Cooper is widely expected to depart in free agency (high price, limited impact in 2025), and Stefon Diggs has moved to New England. This clears target share for Coleman to potentially assume a featured secondary receiver role if he addresses off-field concerns.

  • Elite Production

    At 22.7 years old with elite size (6-4, 215 lbs) and athleticism, Coleman is squarely in the value appreciation phase. Brady-led scheme emphasizing vertical concepts aligns with Coleman's physical profile; year 3 often sees young WR progression if given stable role and maturity.

  • Coaching Continuity

    New HC Joe Brady explicitly stood on the table for Coleman and told him 'the best thing to happen to you is me being your head coach' — rare public investment from a first-year coach that could translate to intentional target allocation and positional authority Coleman didn't have under McDermott.

Format Comparison

Keon Coleman — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest1,363—
PPR SF1,188-175