Fantasy Heartbeat
GuillotineRankingsTrade Calculator
Connect league

© 2026 Fantasy Heartbeat

  • Blog
  • Tools
  • Track Record
  • Pricing
  • Help
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Disclaimers
  • Contact

Fantasy Heartbeat is an independent tool and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the National Football League (NFL), any NFL team, the NFL Players Association, ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, or FleaFlicker. NFL team and player names are used for identification purposes only. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

← Back to Player Explorer
Kenny Pickett headshot

Kenny Pickett

QB · #65

CAR · QB · Age 28

Redraft rank
QB57
◆QB57 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#382
ADP
QB49
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADP-8 slots (reach)
Our rank
QB57
vs
Market ADP
QB49
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
QB57 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
QB49 ADP · -8 slots
Major
Neutral: Source agreement, Age / role
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-27 quarterbacks most similar to Kenny Pickett's 2025 season, 1 finished QB1, 1 finished QB2, 1 finished QB3, 4 finished QB4+, 3 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → QB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

40%30%
  • QB110%(1)
  • QB210%(1)
  • QB310%(1)
  • QB4+40%(4)
  • Missed season30%(3)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
70%hang on~12.1 PPG·30%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–12.818.5
10 most similar players
Cooper Rush98%
2022·QB40 · 7.1 PPG
Logan Woodside98%
2022·Missed the season
PJ Walker98%
2022·QB44 · 6.5 PPG
Mitchell Trubisky97%
2022·QB38 · 10.6 PPG
Jameis Winston97%
2021·QB32 · 16.8 PPG
Gardner Minshew97%
2023·QB21 · 12.3 PPG

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Pickett's prior LVR team tag is stale — he signed a 1-year, $7.5M deal with Carolina on March 11, 2026 to back up Bryce Young, and he is not even guaranteed the QB2 job, with Andy Dalton competing for it. Young is the firmly entrenched, ascending starter in front of an improving offense (Tetairoa McMillan, Chuba Hubbard, Jalen Coker), leaving Pickett with no path to volume barring injury. His 2025 game logs confirm the irrelevance — 6 games, 1.3 PPG, #56 at the position. As a 27-year-old former first-rounder on his third team in three seasons with an imminent 2027 free agency, he is a clear dynasty non-asset. Recommendation: SELL for any pick/depth piece you can get, or simply DROP in single-QB and most superflex leagues; only deep superflex rosters should HOLD as a contingency. There is no realistic timeframe in which his dynasty value meaningfully recovers without a starting job he is unlikely to win.

Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Backup QB Status

    Pickett is a backup QB on the Raiders behind Gardner Minshew with no clear path to consistent starting opportunities. His trade value of reflects minimal dynasty relevance for a backup signal-caller.

  • Depth Chart

    Currently third on the depth chart behind Geno Smith and competing with Aidan O'Connell. Last start (Week 15 vs Eagles) was catastrophic: 15/25, 64 yards, 1 INT, 0 TDs, 4 sacks in a 31-0 loss.

  • Poor Performance On Tape

    Season stats: 27/41 passing (4.5 YPA) with 1 TD/1 INT across 5 games. Week 18 start vs KC resulted in 1/4, 3 yards, 1 INT in first quarter before being benched. Zero momentum or redeeming qualities demonstrated.

  • Catastrophic Performance

    Pickett posted disastrous 2025 stats (27/41, 185 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 4.5 YPA) across 5 games, including a Week 18 benching after 1/4, 3 yards, 1 INT in one quarter. Zero demonstrated value even with opportunity.

  • Team Situation

    The Raiders fired Pete Carroll after one season and hired Klint Kubiak as new HC. The team is expected to draft Fernando Mendoza 1st overall and may cut Geno Smith, leaving no role for Pickett in Vegas.

  • Roster Volatility

    Pickett has been on four NFL teams in four years (Steelers → Eagles → Browns → Raiders → Panthers), a pattern that signals he is viewed as a journeyman backup rather than a franchise piece. Teams are not committing long-term resources to him.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Starter Opportunity2

    If Minshew struggles or is injured, Pickett could secure a starting role with the Raiders, providing immediate upside in dynasty leagues. His familiarity with the NFL could make him a functional emergency starter.

  • Starter Upside

    Carolina is in active rebuild mode with a thin QB room. A 1-year deal worth up to $7.5M suggests the Panthers may be auditioning Pickett as a bridge starter, not just a clipboard holder. If Carolina does not draft a QB early, Pickett has a real path to 17 starts.

  • Offensive Context2

    Departure from a Raiders offense that cycled through three OCs in 2025 and drafted a rookie QB #1 overall removes the most obvious ceiling suppressor. Any stable, modern offensive staff at Carolina would be a marginal positive for his development.

  • Age Trajectory

    At 27, Pickett is not past the window for a late-bloomer QB arc — the position has the longest value curve in dynasty. If he lands a starting job and posts competent numbers, his value floor could rebuild modestly by mid-2026.

Format Comparison

Kenny Pickett — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR SFBest378—
PPR 1QB217-161