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Kareem Hunt headshot

Kareem Hunt

RB · #116

FA · RB · Age 30

Redraft rank
RB105
◆RB105 · Depth
Tier
T4
Overall
#467
ADP
RB96
Consensus
Tight
Value vs ADP-9 slots (reach)
Our rank
RB105
vs
Market ADP
RB96
Drafted earlier than the projection supports.
What’s driving the season rank
Case against
−
Projection rank
RB105 · proj. consensus
Notable
−
ADP value
RB96 ADP · -9 slots
Major
−
Age / role
age 30 RB
Notable
Neutral: Source agreement
What similar players becameLow confidence

Of the 10 age-30 backs most similar to Kareem Hunt's 2025 season, 1 finished RB1, 2 finished RB2, 2 finished RB3, 1 finished RB4+, 4 missed the season.

Based on just 10 analogs — outcomes span Missed season → RB1 — directional, not a forecast · veteran comps draw on 2017-onward history.

17%19%40%
  • RB112%(1)
  • RB217%(2)
  • RB319%(2)
  • RB4+13%(1)
  • Missed season40%(4)

“Missed season” = a comp played fewer than 4 games the next year (injury, benching, or out of the league) — an availability rate, not a dynasty-value call.

Next-season outlookcoin-flip
60%hang on~9.8 PPG·40%missed timeplayed <4 games

Split outcome — median falls in the gap between modes; shown as coin-flip, not a single number.

Full next-season range
0.0p25–p75 0.0–10.515.6
10 most similar players
Nick Chubb88%
2025·RB50 · 5.6 PPG
Mark Ingram II80%
2019·RB10 · 15.4 PPG
Tevin Coleman78%
2022·Missed the season
Devonta Freeman71%
2021·RB31 · 9.2 PPG
Carlos Hyde68%
2022·Missed the season
Raheem Mostert65%
2021·Missed the season

+4 more analogs

Analysis

Kareem Hunt is a 30-year-old (31 in August) free agent with no clear path to meaningful volume, making him a non-asset in dynasty. KC reshaped its backfield this offseason — signing Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III to a record ~$43M deal as the lead back while Pacheco left for Detroit — so even a likely Hunt return to Kansas City projects him as a short-yardage/goal-line specialist behind Walker, Brashard Smith, and Emari Demercado. His 2025 game logs confirm the trajectory: snap share down to 39%, carry share to 22%, and 8.6 PPG output that only mattered when injuries forced standalone volume. The lone upside catalyst is a Walker injury that could briefly restore committee work, but that is a redraft handcuff scenario, not dynasty appreciation. With trade value already near the floor (Tier 7), there is nothing left to sell and no reason to acquire. Recommendation: SELL/DROP in dynasty now (immediate) — hold only in deep redraft or as a desperation Walker handcuff.

Current statusFree Agent
Also see:
Risk & Opportunity Analysis (12 flags)

Risk Flags

6
  • Volume Ceiling2

    The Chiefs signed Kenneth Walker III to a 3-year, $43M deal as the unambiguous lead back in 2026, directly capping Hunt's touch ceiling. His carry and snap share were already declining at season's end and will compress further behind an invested starter on a premium contract.

  • Free Agency Uncertainty

    Hunt enters 2026 as an unrestricted free agent despite Eric Bieniemy's return. With KC's severe cap constraints ($42.7M over), they may not afford to retain him at a meaningful salary.

  • Contract Situation

    Hunt is a UFA with his 2025 contract ($1.5M) expired. While momentum is building for a re-signing due to Eric Bieniemy's return as OC and Bieniemy's prior interest in Hunt, nothing is guaranteed with KC's severe cap constraints.

  • Injury Concerns

    Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in Week 15 and is targeting a Week 1 2026 return but may not be ready. Even if healthy, offensive efficiency will likely decline in a transitional year, capping Hunt's ceiling significantly.

  • Usage & Volume

    KC signed Kenneth Walker III to a record 3-yr/~$43M deal as the bell-cow, with Brashard Smith and Emari Demercado also in the room; any Hunt role is short-yardage/goal-line only.

Opportunity Flags

6
  • Pacheco Departure

    With Pacheco set to exit FA, Hunt becomes the most experienced RB on a rebuilding roster. Could command lead-back duties if KC doesn't invest premium capital on his replacement.

  • Bieniemy Return

    Eric Bieniemy's return as OC and his prior interest in Hunt could increase re-signing likelihood, providing roster continuity and familiarity for a difficult 2026 season.

  • Red Zone Specialist

    Hunt proved reliable in short-yardage and goal-line situations throughout 2025 despite volume struggles. Maintains role value in red zone with potential for TD upside if offense stabilizes.

  • Bieniemy Connection

    Eric Bieniemy's return as OC increases Hunt's re-signing likelihood given Bieniemy tried to bring Hunt to Chicago in 2025. This provides continuity and familiarity in a difficult rebuilding year.

  • Offensive Context

    Hunt is deeply familiar with Andy Reid's system across multiple stints in KC. His pass-protection reliability and route-running competence in the backfield extend his floor beyond a pure goal-line back and keep him relevant in situational packages.

  • Handcuff Value

    If Walker III misses time, Hunt is the in-system bridge option before Johnson is ready. Familiarity with KC's scheme and Mahomes's trust give him a short-window upside, though Smith would likely absorb the bulk of carries in any injury scenario.

Format Comparison

Kareem Hunt — Format Comparison

FormatValuevs Best
PPR 1QBBest289—
PPR SF201-88